I haven't done chart analysis for a while, but I think I might start again. I mainly analyze using Elliott Wave theory and don't focus much on other methods. Since this is just the beginning, I'll start with a long-term analysis rather than a short-term one.
As you may have noticed, the stock and investment markets are in really bad shape. It seems like the uncertainty surrounding Trump is a major factor.
Looking at the Elliott Wave chart, it seems unlikely that Bitcoin will break its previous high with another 5-wave upward movement. For Bitcoin to surpass its previous high, a full 5-wave Elliott sequence needs to form, but the recent upward waves have all ended as ABC corrections.
So, after counting the waves, my primary scenario from a long-term perspective is an ABC downward correction. Honestly, relying on just one scenario makes me uneasy, but given the market uncertainty, I don't see much choice.
You can see the blue trendline, which originates from the uptrend that started in February 2024. Since the price is currently touching the lower trendline and bouncing, there might be some further upside movement.
My overall bearish wave count suggests an RED ABC correction, where the RED large A wave has already completed as an Yellow ABC structure, and the large RED B wave seems to have ended.
Now, we are in the RED large C wave, and my expectation is that Bitcoin will hover between $75,000 and $90,000 for an extended period, moving sideways or slightly drifting downward before eventually breaking below the blue trendline, leading to a major drop.
However, even if a crash occurs, I don't expect the price to quick sharp fall because there is strong support around the $70,000 level.
When looking at the long-term perspective, it's not about being right or wrong—it's about considering different viewpoints.
It's just too difficult to predict where Trump’s words and policies will lead the market.
Wishing you all a great week!
As you may have noticed, the stock and investment markets are in really bad shape. It seems like the uncertainty surrounding Trump is a major factor.
Looking at the Elliott Wave chart, it seems unlikely that Bitcoin will break its previous high with another 5-wave upward movement. For Bitcoin to surpass its previous high, a full 5-wave Elliott sequence needs to form, but the recent upward waves have all ended as ABC corrections.
So, after counting the waves, my primary scenario from a long-term perspective is an ABC downward correction. Honestly, relying on just one scenario makes me uneasy, but given the market uncertainty, I don't see much choice.
You can see the blue trendline, which originates from the uptrend that started in February 2024. Since the price is currently touching the lower trendline and bouncing, there might be some further upside movement.
My overall bearish wave count suggests an RED ABC correction, where the RED large A wave has already completed as an Yellow ABC structure, and the large RED B wave seems to have ended.
Now, we are in the RED large C wave, and my expectation is that Bitcoin will hover between $75,000 and $90,000 for an extended period, moving sideways or slightly drifting downward before eventually breaking below the blue trendline, leading to a major drop.
However, even if a crash occurs, I don't expect the price to quick sharp fall because there is strong support around the $70,000 level.
When looking at the long-term perspective, it's not about being right or wrong—it's about considering different viewpoints.
It's just too difficult to predict where Trump’s words and policies will lead the market.
Wishing you all a great week!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.