Make or Break
As anticipated, BTC reached the upper boundary of the trend channel and way overshoot the target of 11700. While we actually were outside of the trend channel for some hours, we got a heavy rejection and sell-off back inside the channel, where we are continuing to decline.
There are 2 possible options for BTC at this point.
Option 1.: BTC goes down
-BTC will NOT break above the trend channel and experiences further rejection at important levels in the next day(s). In this case, we could see a flash crash back to the 10k area, where we will find first support from both the middle line of the trend channel and the uprising blue line. Here, BTC faces another smaller make or break decision. IF it breaks:
How this could play out:
We are forming the top and therefore the end of wave B in the correction. Wave C will then propel us to a new and final low. How much BTC will ultimately retrace is not clear, but 8500 seems like a plausible first target.
Another idea:
We are not making it past the black horizontal line, which represents the high of the previous Elliot wave cycle. If we fail to break above this line within this new Elliot cycle, we have a Elliot wave Failure and would see a WXY correction:
Either way, IF BTC does not break above the 11830 level soon, BTC will fall one way or the other.
Option 2: BTC goes up
-BTC DOES break above the trend channel and can quickly follow up with a big pump and then defend the break out.
How this could play out:
Besides this Elliot wave theory, BTC has in the past days gained immense momentum, and many people are overly confident again, calling for 13,14, or even 16k. Although BTC likes to surprise the masses, this euphoria cannot be underestimated and can initiate a next big move up.
BTC does have some bullish tendencies at the moment:
BTC broke above the quite important 21 MA. The 21 EMA has consistently shown great support and an area to bounce off and keep climbing up.
Volume has started to pick up again and the RSI still has way to go until BTC reaches overbought zones.
There are 2 possible options for BTC at this point.
Option 1.: BTC goes down
-BTC will NOT break above the trend channel and experiences further rejection at important levels in the next day(s). In this case, we could see a flash crash back to the 10k area, where we will find first support from both the middle line of the trend channel and the uprising blue line. Here, BTC faces another smaller make or break decision. IF it breaks:
How this could play out:
We are forming the top and therefore the end of wave B in the correction. Wave C will then propel us to a new and final low. How much BTC will ultimately retrace is not clear, but 8500 seems like a plausible first target.
Another idea:
We are not making it past the black horizontal line, which represents the high of the previous Elliot wave cycle. If we fail to break above this line within this new Elliot cycle, we have a Elliot wave Failure and would see a WXY correction:
Either way, IF BTC does not break above the 11830 level soon, BTC will fall one way or the other.
Option 2: BTC goes up
-BTC DOES break above the trend channel and can quickly follow up with a big pump and then defend the break out.
How this could play out:
Besides this Elliot wave theory, BTC has in the past days gained immense momentum, and many people are overly confident again, calling for 13,14, or even 16k. Although BTC likes to surprise the masses, this euphoria cannot be underestimated and can initiate a next big move up.
BTC does have some bullish tendencies at the moment:
BTC broke above the quite important 21 MA. The 21 EMA has consistently shown great support and an area to bounce off and keep climbing up.
Volume has started to pick up again and the RSI still has way to go until BTC reaches overbought zones.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.