When you have missed the train, you should not FOMO
Updated
You are arriving at the station, everyone is rushing in, you check the screens and your train is departing very soon. You run, go to the platform and the train is moving. You run, then train leaves, you run, jump... and fall on the rails. The next train smashes you.
Or alternatively, you admit you have missed the train because it is obviously chugging away with the doors closed, grab a drink and wait for the next train. There is always a next train, even if you have to grudgingly wait all night because you missed the last of the day's.
My point is, even everyone is buying in a rush, do not FOMO. You can FOMO, of course, get lucky because you FOMOed early, and then be bold enough to leave at the next station of the circular line. But if you really think of FOMOing, look at the risk/benefit first. Note that my comments are from the perspective of a weekly/monthly timeframe investor. Trading is a different thing, it thrives in volatility and risk is managed in a different way.
In the plot below, just an example. The thin arrows show point where indicators are at or close to a extreme in a high timeframe (weekly and above). With indicators I mean very overbought RSI, MFI, price well above EMAs, price touching or even worse extending beyond the top boundary of the Bollinger bands, etc. But then, you see that price continued up after a small correction. Well, it could have gone down to correct further, but it went up. Fine.
However, look at the thick arrows. Again, overbought signals, but the difference is that they are at a major resistance, the previous '21/'22 top. Very, very high risk of drop after touching and rejecting the previous top. Now price can go down and up again and maybe form an ascending triangle, or a double top, who knows. But unless you are thirsty for risk, buying under a previous rejected top with overbought signals is a bold move. Step back and give a thought to waiting either for a drop, or for a break up above the previous top, even if you lose 10-15% of potential gains... with the prospect of price going above 100K that is not that bad. I would seriously recommend though, stay out of leverage as if it was the pox -too much risk here.
One can argue that RSI can stay overbought for a very long time. True, we have examples in previous cycles. I am just pointing at the confluence of overbought indicators with rejected top, that is a big red flag.
As a final comment, stay out of posts that play with your emotions. If someone says "buy before it is too late", "sell now or lose it all", "I will say elsewhere, only I know", etc, those things that make you itch for a move... just leave. Decide what to do by yourself, so you don't have the excuse to blame someone else.
Note
Ah, don't take my post as a "BTC will go super-down forever", not at all. There will be entry points as price moves. The post is a reflection on the recent past, and of previous tops, thinking of everyone FOMOing when price got rejected, catching the drops. And it's a reflection on risk areas.
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