Canada 10-Year Bond Yield CA10Y
The Canadian 10-year government bond yield is 3.43-3.419%% as of July 10, 2025, slightly up from the previous session and close to its level a year ago.
Trend: The yield has edged up by about 0.06 percentage points over the past month, but remains below its long-term average of 4.25%.
Economic Outlook
Growth Forecast: GDP growth for 2025 is now expected at 1.0%–1.25%, revised down from earlier forecasts due to trade tensions and a cooling labor market.
Risks: The outlook is tilted to the downside, with rising unemployment (7% in May, projected to reach 7.5% by year-end) and weakened consumer/business sentiment.
Monetary Policy: The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.75%, with expectations of a rate cut to 2.25% by year-end as growth headwinds persist.
Regional Performance: Some provinces, like Newfoundland and Labrador, are seeing upgrades due to resource production, but overall national performance is subdued.
Upcoming Economic News
July 15: New Motor Vehicle Sales (May data) and Monthly Survey of Manufacturing.
July 16: 30-Year Bond Auction.
July 17: CFIB Business Barometer, Foreign Securities Purchases.
July 21: Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM release.
Ongoing: Industrial production and retail sales data will provide further insight into growth trends.
US Tariff Effect
New Tariffs: The US announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports effective August 1, 2025, escalating trade tensions.
Economic Impact:
These tariffs are expected to weigh heavily on Canadian exports, business investment, and employment, given Canada’s high trade exposure to the US.
The Canadian dollar fell in response to the tariff announcement, reflecting market concern over the impact on Canada’s export-dependent economy.
Sectoral Risks: Manufacturing and auto sectors are particularly vulnerable, with job losses already concentrated in trade-exposed regions.
Policy Response: The Bank of Canada has cited trade uncertainty as a key reason for maintaining a cautious monetary stance, with further easing likely if conditions deteriorate.
Summary Table
Indicator Latest Value / Outlook Notes
10-Year Bond Yield 3.43% Slightly up, below long-term average
GDP Growth (2025) 1.0%–1.25% Downgraded due to trade/labor headwinds
Unemployment Rate 7% (May), 7.5% (year-end est.) Rising, especially in trade-exposed sectors
BoC Policy Rate 2.75% (cut to 2.25% expected) Cautious, possible further easing
US Tariffs 35% from Aug 1, 2025 Significant downside risk
Key Economic News July 15–21: Sales, PPI, auctions Manufacturing, trade, and price data
In summary:
Canada’s 10-year bond yield remains stable but below historical averages. The economic outlook is subdued, with downside risks from rising US tariffs, a softening labor market, and weak business sentiment. Upcoming economic releases will be closely watched for further signs of stress, especially as new US tariffs threaten to further dampen growth and confidence.
#CA10Y #BOND #BONDYIELD
The Canadian 10-year government bond yield is 3.43-3.419%% as of July 10, 2025, slightly up from the previous session and close to its level a year ago.
Trend: The yield has edged up by about 0.06 percentage points over the past month, but remains below its long-term average of 4.25%.
Economic Outlook
Growth Forecast: GDP growth for 2025 is now expected at 1.0%–1.25%, revised down from earlier forecasts due to trade tensions and a cooling labor market.
Risks: The outlook is tilted to the downside, with rising unemployment (7% in May, projected to reach 7.5% by year-end) and weakened consumer/business sentiment.
Monetary Policy: The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.75%, with expectations of a rate cut to 2.25% by year-end as growth headwinds persist.
Regional Performance: Some provinces, like Newfoundland and Labrador, are seeing upgrades due to resource production, but overall national performance is subdued.
Upcoming Economic News
July 15: New Motor Vehicle Sales (May data) and Monthly Survey of Manufacturing.
July 16: 30-Year Bond Auction.
July 17: CFIB Business Barometer, Foreign Securities Purchases.
July 21: Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM release.
Ongoing: Industrial production and retail sales data will provide further insight into growth trends.
US Tariff Effect
New Tariffs: The US announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports effective August 1, 2025, escalating trade tensions.
Economic Impact:
These tariffs are expected to weigh heavily on Canadian exports, business investment, and employment, given Canada’s high trade exposure to the US.
The Canadian dollar fell in response to the tariff announcement, reflecting market concern over the impact on Canada’s export-dependent economy.
Sectoral Risks: Manufacturing and auto sectors are particularly vulnerable, with job losses already concentrated in trade-exposed regions.
Policy Response: The Bank of Canada has cited trade uncertainty as a key reason for maintaining a cautious monetary stance, with further easing likely if conditions deteriorate.
Summary Table
Indicator Latest Value / Outlook Notes
10-Year Bond Yield 3.43% Slightly up, below long-term average
GDP Growth (2025) 1.0%–1.25% Downgraded due to trade/labor headwinds
Unemployment Rate 7% (May), 7.5% (year-end est.) Rising, especially in trade-exposed sectors
BoC Policy Rate 2.75% (cut to 2.25% expected) Cautious, possible further easing
US Tariffs 35% from Aug 1, 2025 Significant downside risk
Key Economic News July 15–21: Sales, PPI, auctions Manufacturing, trade, and price data
In summary:
Canada’s 10-year bond yield remains stable but below historical averages. The economic outlook is subdued, with downside risks from rising US tariffs, a softening labor market, and weak business sentiment. Upcoming economic releases will be closely watched for further signs of stress, especially as new US tariffs threaten to further dampen growth and confidence.
#CA10Y #BOND #BONDYIELD
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.