JPY** – *June 13, 2025*
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### 📋 Plan Overview Table
| Type | Direction | Confidence | R\:R | Status |
| ----- | --------- | ---------- | ------- | ------------ |
| Trade | Long | 7.5 / 10 | \~2.4:1 | Active Setup |
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### 📈 Market Bias & Type
**Bias**: Bullish
**Type**: Continuation from higher low structure on H1-H4 with strong bullish engulfing recovery from 105.00 zone.
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### 🔰 Confidence Level
**75% Confidence Breakdown**:
* ✅ H4 Bullish Continuation + Market Structure: **25%**
* ✅ H1 Demand Zone Reaction (105.00–105.10): **20%**
* ✅ Bullish Engulfing + Volume Push: **15%**
* ✅ W1 Bias Recovery Attempt: **10%**
* ❌ No H4 Divergence / Overbought RSI: **-5%**
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### 📍 Entry Zones
* **Primary Entry Zone**: 105.60 – 105.75 (current break retest)
* **Secondary Entry Zone**: 105.25 – 105.40 (demand zone + wick support)
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### ❗ SL with Reasoning
* **Stop-Loss**: 104.90
**Reason**: Below recent higher low & key demand rejection (104.95). Structural invalidation of bullish bias.
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### 🎯 TP1/TP2/TP3 Targets
* **TP1**: 106.40
* **TP2**: 106.85
* **TP3**: 107.30 (W1 upper range test)
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### 🧠 Management Strategy
* **Risk**: 1% per entry
* **Scaling**: Add at secondary entry if retest holds with bullish confirmation
* **Breakeven**: At 106.10 (after break of micro-structure)
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### ⚠️ Confirmation Checklist
| Element | Status |
| --------------- | ----------- |
| H1–H4 Engulfing | ✅ Confirmed |
| Key Volumes | ✅ Increased |
| Sessions Tested | ✅ Asia + EU |
---
### ⏳ Validity
* **H1**: 12h (until breakout continuation fails)
* **H4**: 48h+ (structure intact above 105.00)
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### ❌ Invalidation Conditions
* Break below 104.90 with momentum
* No bullish rejection from secondary zone
* Daily close below 105.00
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### 🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot
* **JPY Weakness Bias**: BoJ dovish tone + low inflation
* **CAD Mixed**: Crude oil neutral, BOC expected to hold rates
* **Net Flow**: JPY underperforms across board – supports long CADJPY
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### 📋 Final Trade Summary
> A **bullish continuation trade** setup on CADJPY backed by H4 market structure and session volume. Re-entry from 105.60 zone with clean SL under structural invalidation at 104.90. Targets 106.40 / 106.85 / 107.30.
---
### 📋 Plan Overview Table
| Type | Direction | Confidence | R\:R | Status |
| ----- | --------- | ---------- | ------- | ------------ |
| Trade | Long | 7.5 / 10 | \~2.4:1 | Active Setup |
---
### 📈 Market Bias & Type
**Bias**: Bullish
**Type**: Continuation from higher low structure on H1-H4 with strong bullish engulfing recovery from 105.00 zone.
---
### 🔰 Confidence Level
**75% Confidence Breakdown**:
* ✅ H4 Bullish Continuation + Market Structure: **25%**
* ✅ H1 Demand Zone Reaction (105.00–105.10): **20%**
* ✅ Bullish Engulfing + Volume Push: **15%**
* ✅ W1 Bias Recovery Attempt: **10%**
* ❌ No H4 Divergence / Overbought RSI: **-5%**
---
### 📍 Entry Zones
* **Primary Entry Zone**: 105.60 – 105.75 (current break retest)
* **Secondary Entry Zone**: 105.25 – 105.40 (demand zone + wick support)
---
### ❗ SL with Reasoning
* **Stop-Loss**: 104.90
**Reason**: Below recent higher low & key demand rejection (104.95). Structural invalidation of bullish bias.
---
### 🎯 TP1/TP2/TP3 Targets
* **TP1**: 106.40
* **TP2**: 106.85
* **TP3**: 107.30 (W1 upper range test)
---
### 🧠 Management Strategy
* **Risk**: 1% per entry
* **Scaling**: Add at secondary entry if retest holds with bullish confirmation
* **Breakeven**: At 106.10 (after break of micro-structure)
---
### ⚠️ Confirmation Checklist
| Element | Status |
| --------------- | ----------- |
| H1–H4 Engulfing | ✅ Confirmed |
| Key Volumes | ✅ Increased |
| Sessions Tested | ✅ Asia + EU |
---
### ⏳ Validity
* **H1**: 12h (until breakout continuation fails)
* **H4**: 48h+ (structure intact above 105.00)
---
### ❌ Invalidation Conditions
* Break below 104.90 with momentum
* No bullish rejection from secondary zone
* Daily close below 105.00
---
### 🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot
* **JPY Weakness Bias**: BoJ dovish tone + low inflation
* **CAD Mixed**: Crude oil neutral, BOC expected to hold rates
* **Net Flow**: JPY underperforms across board – supports long CADJPY
---
### 📋 Final Trade Summary
> A **bullish continuation trade** setup on CADJPY backed by H4 market structure and session volume. Re-entry from 105.60 zone with clean SL under structural invalidation at 104.90. Targets 106.40 / 106.85 / 107.30.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.