Carnival CorporationShort
Carnival. Another delay in recovery.
Carnival Corporation is the world's largest travel company, founded in 1972. Today it is the leading cruise operator serving nearly half of the world's cruise travel market. Has a global presence in North America, Australia, Europe and Asia. It operates a fleet of more than 100 ships and owns a portfolio of leading global, regional and national brands of economy and premium cruise lines such as Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, AIDA and others. Carnival Cruise Line, the most popular global brand, carries more than 5 million guests every year. In addition to cruise operations, the company owns Alaska's leading tour company - Holland America Princess Alaska Tours.
➡️ The cruise industry is still unprofitable in the context of the Covid-19, as the tourist flow does not have time to recover due to regular new pandemic waves. And now the positive expectations for next year are beginning to fade - the company faced a large number of cancellations for flights in the coming months, which is caused by a lot of positive pre-cruise tests. Demand for flights in the second half of 2022 is also below expectations at the moment.
➡️ On the chart, you can see that the growth after the spring collapse of 2020 developed in zigzags. Structurally, the movement is similar to the leading diagonal, which may indicate that the low set in early April 2020 is the starting point for a new strong trend.
In the decline from $31 that began in June 2021, I highlight the emerging single zigzag with a potential diagonal in wave {c}of2. The movement develops within the channel formed by the Schiff’s Pitchfork, the borders and the middle line of which are confirmed by the price reaction.
It is logical to expect the end of the correction in the range of $13 - $17, because that’s where the main volumetric zone of all previous growth is located.
📌 Alternatively, we can assume that correction 2 ended at the end of 2021 at the level of $16.5, and now we are seeing some starting waves within wave 3 already. in my opinion, it is more doubtful structurally (wave {a} then should be a zigzag, which it does not look like) and is not at all supported by the fundamental that I cited at the beginning.
📉 I assume that the fall may stop at $13-13.5, where the lower boundary of the pitchfork and the Fibonacci correction level of 0.618 also pass.
➖ Cancellation of the scenario when the price rises above $23.3.
➡️ The cruise industry is still unprofitable in the context of the Covid-19, as the tourist flow does not have time to recover due to regular new pandemic waves. And now the positive expectations for next year are beginning to fade - the company faced a large number of cancellations for flights in the coming months, which is caused by a lot of positive pre-cruise tests. Demand for flights in the second half of 2022 is also below expectations at the moment.
➡️ On the chart, you can see that the growth after the spring collapse of 2020 developed in zigzags. Structurally, the movement is similar to the leading diagonal, which may indicate that the low set in early April 2020 is the starting point for a new strong trend.
In the decline from $31 that began in June 2021, I highlight the emerging single zigzag with a potential diagonal in wave {c}of2. The movement develops within the channel formed by the Schiff’s Pitchfork, the borders and the middle line of which are confirmed by the price reaction.
It is logical to expect the end of the correction in the range of $13 - $17, because that’s where the main volumetric zone of all previous growth is located.
📌 Alternatively, we can assume that correction 2 ended at the end of 2021 at the level of $16.5, and now we are seeing some starting waves within wave 3 already. in my opinion, it is more doubtful structurally (wave {a} then should be a zigzag, which it does not look like) and is not at all supported by the fundamental that I cited at the beginning.
📉 I assume that the fall may stop at $13-13.5, where the lower boundary of the pitchfork and the Fibonacci correction level of 0.618 also pass.
➖ Cancellation of the scenario when the price rises above $23.3.
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