CEIX Consol Rally to $60 for Local Coal Cycle Top
Updated
try and be patient with this one. Geopolitical headlines will move it fast in this thin volume topping structure.
await a run up near 60 and then play for downside
strong fundamentals:
finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CEIX&ty=c&ta=0&p=w
Greenlight Capital also discussed CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE:CEIX) in its Q2 2021 investor letter. The fund said:
“Thermal Coal and Natural Gas
ESG investing is inflationary, as green energy is simply more expensive than hydrocarbons. Hydrocarbon energy companies are starved for capital and are being told to change their ways. The result is less exploration and drilling. Even with benchmark oil prices surging over the last year, companies are loath to drill more. Normally, the cure for high prices is high prices. With ESG in the proverbial driver’s seat, we might need much higher prices still in order to increase investment to meet demand.
There is almost nothing less popular than thermal coal. From 2011 to 2020, U.S. coal production declined by 51%. U.S. demand has fallen as we’ve shifted to alternative sources of electricity. As unpopular as coal is though, it still makes up about 20% of U.S. electricity generation. Globally, coal demand is growing modestly as China and India add power generation capacity faster than the West is reducing it. Even so, reduced oil and gas drilling has caused natural gas prices to advance and coal prices are following. Seaborne thermal coal prices are up 140% year-over-year and at the highest levels since 2011, and Northern Appalachia thermal coal prices are catching up, rising 23% in the last month alone.
We own CONSOL Energy (CEIX), the lowest cost, most efficient miner in Appalachia, which is poised to benefit from rising coal prices. It trades at 12x consensus earnings estimates that look stale to us, as they do not reflect recent coal price gains.”
await a run up near 60 and then play for downside
strong fundamentals:
finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CEIX&ty=c&ta=0&p=w
Greenlight Capital also discussed CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE:CEIX) in its Q2 2021 investor letter. The fund said:
“Thermal Coal and Natural Gas
ESG investing is inflationary, as green energy is simply more expensive than hydrocarbons. Hydrocarbon energy companies are starved for capital and are being told to change their ways. The result is less exploration and drilling. Even with benchmark oil prices surging over the last year, companies are loath to drill more. Normally, the cure for high prices is high prices. With ESG in the proverbial driver’s seat, we might need much higher prices still in order to increase investment to meet demand.
There is almost nothing less popular than thermal coal. From 2011 to 2020, U.S. coal production declined by 51%. U.S. demand has fallen as we’ve shifted to alternative sources of electricity. As unpopular as coal is though, it still makes up about 20% of U.S. electricity generation. Globally, coal demand is growing modestly as China and India add power generation capacity faster than the West is reducing it. Even so, reduced oil and gas drilling has caused natural gas prices to advance and coal prices are following. Seaborne thermal coal prices are up 140% year-over-year and at the highest levels since 2011, and Northern Appalachia thermal coal prices are catching up, rising 23% in the last month alone.
We own CONSOL Energy (CEIX), the lowest cost, most efficient miner in Appalachia, which is poised to benefit from rising coal prices. It trades at 12x consensus earnings estimates that look stale to us, as they do not reflect recent coal price gains.”
Note
Double Top played but never quite extended to $60 short into today's dead cat bounce (+10% up with momo trade)
Note
Rising Wedge breakdown fractal is playing on LTF Note
REKT! Consol is a monster moverNote
run much stronger than expected due to prolonged energy crisis, this may continue and reach $100 now. there is no topping structure on the chartNote
attempting to call the top for a second time. See updated chart with "New Paradigm" critique
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.