Ticker: NASDAQ:CFLT (Confluent, Inc.)
Bias: Long
Timeframe: Daily (with momentum building from May lows)
Entry: Around $24.30 (near recent breakout above pivot at $22.80)
Stop Loss: $22.14 (below swing lows, ~8.86% risk)
Target: $29.76 (near R2 resistance, ~22.60% reward)
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.35:1
Position Sizing Suggestion: Limit risk to 1-2% of capital (e.g., ~$21,000 total risk on 3,271 shares as shown)
Confluent (CFLT) is showing strong bullish momentum on the daily chart, breaking out from a multi-month consolidation base between $18–$23 since April 2025 lows. The price has formed higher highs and lows, supported by a bullish MACD crossover (green signal line above red, positive histogram bars), indicating accelerating upside potential. RSI is neutral around 54–60, leaving room to run without being overbought. Volume has ticked up on recent green candles, confirming buyer interest.
From a smart money perspective, institutional ownership stands at ~78%, with net buying in Q2 2025 (e.g., hedge funds adding ~7.1M shares). This aligns with Confluent's growth in real-time data streaming for AI and cloud applications, boosted by the July 2025 AWS Marketplace expansion for AI agents. Fundamentals support this: Q1 2025 beat expectations (EPS $0.08 vs. $0.07, revenue +26% YoY, Cloud segment +42%), though guidance was conservative amid macro IT spending slowdowns.
Pivot points guide the trade: Break above P ($22.80) targets R1 ($27.33) then R2 ($29.73, close to my $29.76). If momentum holds (e.g., breakout above $25.82), we could see extension to $31–$32 based on analyst averages (Moderate Buy consensus, target ~$31.50 from 30 analysts).
Risks to Watch: Upcoming Q2 earnings on July 30 could introduce volatility—consider trailing stops or exiting beforehand if holding through. Competition from hyperscalers (AWS, GCP) and broader tech sector dips (CFLT beta 1.71) could pressure if support fails. Not financial advice; always DYOR.
If you agree with this setup or have thoughts on CFLT, drop a comment below! Hit like if this helps, and follow for more ideas. Let's see how this plays out—I'll update as needed. 🚀
Bias: Long
Timeframe: Daily (with momentum building from May lows)
Entry: Around $24.30 (near recent breakout above pivot at $22.80)
Stop Loss: $22.14 (below swing lows, ~8.86% risk)
Target: $29.76 (near R2 resistance, ~22.60% reward)
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.35:1
Position Sizing Suggestion: Limit risk to 1-2% of capital (e.g., ~$21,000 total risk on 3,271 shares as shown)
Confluent (CFLT) is showing strong bullish momentum on the daily chart, breaking out from a multi-month consolidation base between $18–$23 since April 2025 lows. The price has formed higher highs and lows, supported by a bullish MACD crossover (green signal line above red, positive histogram bars), indicating accelerating upside potential. RSI is neutral around 54–60, leaving room to run without being overbought. Volume has ticked up on recent green candles, confirming buyer interest.
From a smart money perspective, institutional ownership stands at ~78%, with net buying in Q2 2025 (e.g., hedge funds adding ~7.1M shares). This aligns with Confluent's growth in real-time data streaming for AI and cloud applications, boosted by the July 2025 AWS Marketplace expansion for AI agents. Fundamentals support this: Q1 2025 beat expectations (EPS $0.08 vs. $0.07, revenue +26% YoY, Cloud segment +42%), though guidance was conservative amid macro IT spending slowdowns.
Pivot points guide the trade: Break above P ($22.80) targets R1 ($27.33) then R2 ($29.73, close to my $29.76). If momentum holds (e.g., breakout above $25.82), we could see extension to $31–$32 based on analyst averages (Moderate Buy consensus, target ~$31.50 from 30 analysts).
Risks to Watch: Upcoming Q2 earnings on July 30 could introduce volatility—consider trailing stops or exiting beforehand if holding through. Competition from hyperscalers (AWS, GCP) and broader tech sector dips (CFLT beta 1.71) could pressure if support fails. Not financial advice; always DYOR.
If you agree with this setup or have thoughts on CFLT, drop a comment below! Hit like if this helps, and follow for more ideas. Let's see how this plays out—I'll update as needed. 🚀
If you found my trades helpful, please consider sending a tip in BTC to: bc1qr35mrh82hykpy9v6znpsyuew85x84ezjyrrf6m
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
If you found my trades helpful, please consider sending a tip in BTC to: bc1qr35mrh82hykpy9v6znpsyuew85x84ezjyrrf6m
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.