Cognyte Software (CGNT) just cleanly broke out above long-standing resistance around $11, and the structure suggests it wants to start a new bullish leg higher.
Let’s break down where it might go, using a technically grounded roadmap:
Why This Move Looks Like the Start of a New Rally
1. Structure Shift
That $11 level was a ceiling going back multiple quarters. The breakout was impulsive and clean, with closing strength and solid volume. This suggests accumulation beneath resistance is now turning into trend expansion — classic phase 2 breakout in market structure.
2. MACD & RSI Still Supportive
MACD is still positive and has not crossed bearish, just flattening — typical of mid-trend pauses, not reversals. RSI at 76 is overbought, but not diverging, which means momentum is still valid. CGNT is acting like it wants to run, not roll.
Where Can It Go?
We'll project using:
A) Measured Move
Previous range (Feb–May): $8.00 → $11.00 = $3 range
Breakout above $11 → Target = $14.00
B) Fibonacci Extension (Breakout Leg)
Using swing low ($7.50) to pre-breakout high ($11.00):
1.618 Fib extension = ~$13.25
2.0 extension = ~$14.50
These targets align well with the measured move, giving us $13.25–14.50 as a logical upside zone if the trend holds.
C) Psychological & Round Numbers
$12.00 is the next short-term magnet
Then $13.50–14.00 as medium-term targets
What Invalidates the Move?
Breakdown below $10.80 (failed breakout = trap)
RSI divergence + MACD crossover
Weak follow-through volume
Godspeed.
Let’s break down where it might go, using a technically grounded roadmap:
Why This Move Looks Like the Start of a New Rally
1. Structure Shift
That $11 level was a ceiling going back multiple quarters. The breakout was impulsive and clean, with closing strength and solid volume. This suggests accumulation beneath resistance is now turning into trend expansion — classic phase 2 breakout in market structure.
2. MACD & RSI Still Supportive
MACD is still positive and has not crossed bearish, just flattening — typical of mid-trend pauses, not reversals. RSI at 76 is overbought, but not diverging, which means momentum is still valid. CGNT is acting like it wants to run, not roll.
Where Can It Go?
We'll project using:
A) Measured Move
Previous range (Feb–May): $8.00 → $11.00 = $3 range
Breakout above $11 → Target = $14.00
B) Fibonacci Extension (Breakout Leg)
Using swing low ($7.50) to pre-breakout high ($11.00):
1.618 Fib extension = ~$13.25
2.0 extension = ~$14.50
These targets align well with the measured move, giving us $13.25–14.50 as a logical upside zone if the trend holds.
C) Psychological & Round Numbers
$12.00 is the next short-term magnet
Then $13.50–14.00 as medium-term targets
What Invalidates the Move?
Breakdown below $10.80 (failed breakout = trap)
RSI divergence + MACD crossover
Weak follow-through volume
Godspeed.
Trade closed: stop reached
This was a failed breakout. 
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.