CHFJPY pair is showing signs of exhaustion near a strong resistance zone just under 176.00. With price action printing multiple rejections and forming lower highs, the setup favors a bearish bias heading into mid-Q2 2025. With Japanese yen sentiment strengthening despite market doubts and Swiss inflation data showing stagnation, the technical picture is aligning with macro fundamentals for a potential drop.
📊 Technical Outlook (Daily Chart)
Key Resistance Rejected:
Price failed to sustain above 175.75–176.15 area, a strong historical resistance.
Multiple rejection wicks highlight bearish pressure at this level.
Bearish Structure:
Rising wedge and flag breakdowns have preceded the current move.
The chart shows a projected bearish leg forming, with three potential targets marked by green support zones.
Support Levels to Watch:
172.61 – Minor structure and neckline support.
171.00 – Key horizontal zone; likely the first major test.
168.50–166.50 – Final bearish targets based on previous structure and price consolidation.
Bearish Trade Plan (as indicated):
Entry zone: ~174.80–175.50 (after a confirmed lower high or breakdown).
Stop: Above 176.15 (structure invalidation).
TP1: 172.60
TP2: 171.00
TP3: 168.50
Final TP: 166.50
🌐 Fundamental Drivers
Swiss Inflation (April 2025):
Swiss CPI was flat MoM and YoY (0.0%), reflecting weak price momentum
Core inflation remained modest (+0.1%), reducing pressure on SNB to tighten policy.
JPY Sentiment & Positioning:
COT data shows record net-long JPY positions, suggesting strong speculative interest
Analysts warn of overbought sentiment, but dovish BoJ policy continues to suppress JPY bears for now.
Macro Context:
Risk-off sentiment or yield curve steepening could favor the yen further.
CHF may weaken if Swiss data continues to underwhelm.
✅ Summary
CHFJPY has rejected strong resistance, and both technical and macro indicators suggest a pullback is likely. A break below 172.60 could open the door to deeper declines toward 168.50–166.50 in the coming weeks.
📊 Technical Outlook (Daily Chart)
Key Resistance Rejected:
Price failed to sustain above 175.75–176.15 area, a strong historical resistance.
Multiple rejection wicks highlight bearish pressure at this level.
Bearish Structure:
Rising wedge and flag breakdowns have preceded the current move.
The chart shows a projected bearish leg forming, with three potential targets marked by green support zones.
Support Levels to Watch:
172.61 – Minor structure and neckline support.
171.00 – Key horizontal zone; likely the first major test.
168.50–166.50 – Final bearish targets based on previous structure and price consolidation.
Bearish Trade Plan (as indicated):
Entry zone: ~174.80–175.50 (after a confirmed lower high or breakdown).
Stop: Above 176.15 (structure invalidation).
TP1: 172.60
TP2: 171.00
TP3: 168.50
Final TP: 166.50
🌐 Fundamental Drivers
Swiss Inflation (April 2025):
Swiss CPI was flat MoM and YoY (0.0%), reflecting weak price momentum
Core inflation remained modest (+0.1%), reducing pressure on SNB to tighten policy.
JPY Sentiment & Positioning:
COT data shows record net-long JPY positions, suggesting strong speculative interest
Analysts warn of overbought sentiment, but dovish BoJ policy continues to suppress JPY bears for now.
Macro Context:
Risk-off sentiment or yield curve steepening could favor the yen further.
CHF may weaken if Swiss data continues to underwhelm.
✅ Summary
CHFJPY has rejected strong resistance, and both technical and macro indicators suggest a pullback is likely. A break below 172.60 could open the door to deeper declines toward 168.50–166.50 in the coming weeks.
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🥇95% Accurate Signals
♻️1-2 Daily Signals
✔️Free Daily Profitable Signals
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.