CHF/USD Weekly – Triangle Breakout Confirms Bullish Momentum | Target 1.2909
🧭 Market Overview
The Swiss Franc / US Dollar (CHF/USD) pair has been ranging within a clear symmetrical triangle formation for over two years. Symmetrical triangles represent a period of consolidation where both buyers and sellers are in relative balance — eventually leading to a decisive breakout when one side gains dominance.
This weekly chart suggests that the pair has reached a pivotal moment: a breakout above triangle resistance has been confirmed, signaling a potential shift in long-term market structure.
📐 Technical Chart Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle
🔸 Structure:
Support Line (Rising): Formed by connecting higher lows from early 2023 through early 2025.
Resistance Line (Falling): Formed by connecting lower highs from mid-2023 to 2025.
Triangle Apex: Projected into 2032 — showing a long-term tightening pattern.
The triangle has acted as a consolidation zone within a broader bullish trend.
🔍 Key Technical Highlights:
Multiple touches on both support and resistance validate the triangle's structure.
Price has consistently respected the support zone near 1.11–1.12 and faced resistance at 1.18–1.19 until the breakout.
The recent bullish move has breached both the resistance trendline and horizontal zone at ~1.1889, which now turns into support.
📌 Trade Setup and Strategy
🟦 Entry Logic:
Breakout Entry: After the weekly candle closes above 1.1889, confirming breakout from the symmetrical triangle.
Aggressive traders may enter immediately on breakout confirmation.
Conservative traders may wait for a retest of the 1.19 zone before entering long.
🎯 Target (TP):
1.2909 – this target is derived from the measured move technique, where the height of the triangle is projected from the breakout point.
This also coincides with a historical resistance zone, making it a strong technical target.
🛑 Stop Loss (SL):
1.1889 – the previous resistance zone and now a flipped support.
A weekly close back below this level would invalidate the bullish setup and suggest a possible false breakout.
🧠 Price Action Psychology
The triangle represents a battle of sentiment — bulls buying at higher lows, bears selling at lower highs.
The breakout signals that bullish momentum has overwhelmed sellers, often attracting trend-following traders.
This type of breakout is often followed by:
Short-covering from sellers trapped above resistance
New long positions from technical traders
If the breakout holds, we could see a strong impulse wave to the upside, completing a classical breakout–retest–continuation pattern.
🔎 Fundamental Context (Optional to Include)
While this is a technical setup, fundamentals could also support the move:
Potential divergence in monetary policy: If the Federal Reserve maintains higher rates or delays rate cuts while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) remains dovish, this could strengthen the USD further.
Risk sentiment shifts can also influence CHF (a traditional safe-haven) negatively if markets lean toward risk-on assets.
⏳ Timeframe Considerations
This is a long-term swing or position trade based on the weekly timeframe.
Ideal for traders looking to capitalize on medium to long-term trends, not intraday moves.
Trade horizon: several weeks to a few months depending on market momentum.
⚖️ Risk Management Tips
Position sizing should be based on your personal risk tolerance and account size.
Always risk a small percentage per trade (e.g., 1–2%).
Be prepared for retests or sideways action before the full breakout unfolds.
📌 Summary
🔹 Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle
🔹 Breakout Level: 1.1889 (confirmed)
🔹 Current Price: 1.2241
🔹 Target: 1.2909
🔹 Stop Loss: 1.1889
🔹 Timeframe: Weekly (Swing/Position)
🔹 Risk/Reward Ratio: Strong (approx 2.5–3:1)
📢 Conclusion:
The CHF/USD pair has successfully broken out of a textbook symmetrical triangle, signaling a major technical shift. As long as price holds above 1.1889, this setup remains valid with a projected upside toward 1.2909. Traders should monitor for pullbacks, confirm momentum, and manage risk accordingly.
This setup combines technical precision with sound market structure — a powerful combination for disciplined traders.
🧭 Market Overview
The Swiss Franc / US Dollar (CHF/USD) pair has been ranging within a clear symmetrical triangle formation for over two years. Symmetrical triangles represent a period of consolidation where both buyers and sellers are in relative balance — eventually leading to a decisive breakout when one side gains dominance.
This weekly chart suggests that the pair has reached a pivotal moment: a breakout above triangle resistance has been confirmed, signaling a potential shift in long-term market structure.
📐 Technical Chart Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle
🔸 Structure:
Support Line (Rising): Formed by connecting higher lows from early 2023 through early 2025.
Resistance Line (Falling): Formed by connecting lower highs from mid-2023 to 2025.
Triangle Apex: Projected into 2032 — showing a long-term tightening pattern.
The triangle has acted as a consolidation zone within a broader bullish trend.
🔍 Key Technical Highlights:
Multiple touches on both support and resistance validate the triangle's structure.
Price has consistently respected the support zone near 1.11–1.12 and faced resistance at 1.18–1.19 until the breakout.
The recent bullish move has breached both the resistance trendline and horizontal zone at ~1.1889, which now turns into support.
📌 Trade Setup and Strategy
🟦 Entry Logic:
Breakout Entry: After the weekly candle closes above 1.1889, confirming breakout from the symmetrical triangle.
Aggressive traders may enter immediately on breakout confirmation.
Conservative traders may wait for a retest of the 1.19 zone before entering long.
🎯 Target (TP):
1.2909 – this target is derived from the measured move technique, where the height of the triangle is projected from the breakout point.
This also coincides with a historical resistance zone, making it a strong technical target.
🛑 Stop Loss (SL):
1.1889 – the previous resistance zone and now a flipped support.
A weekly close back below this level would invalidate the bullish setup and suggest a possible false breakout.
🧠 Price Action Psychology
The triangle represents a battle of sentiment — bulls buying at higher lows, bears selling at lower highs.
The breakout signals that bullish momentum has overwhelmed sellers, often attracting trend-following traders.
This type of breakout is often followed by:
Short-covering from sellers trapped above resistance
New long positions from technical traders
If the breakout holds, we could see a strong impulse wave to the upside, completing a classical breakout–retest–continuation pattern.
🔎 Fundamental Context (Optional to Include)
While this is a technical setup, fundamentals could also support the move:
Potential divergence in monetary policy: If the Federal Reserve maintains higher rates or delays rate cuts while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) remains dovish, this could strengthen the USD further.
Risk sentiment shifts can also influence CHF (a traditional safe-haven) negatively if markets lean toward risk-on assets.
⏳ Timeframe Considerations
This is a long-term swing or position trade based on the weekly timeframe.
Ideal for traders looking to capitalize on medium to long-term trends, not intraday moves.
Trade horizon: several weeks to a few months depending on market momentum.
⚖️ Risk Management Tips
Position sizing should be based on your personal risk tolerance and account size.
Always risk a small percentage per trade (e.g., 1–2%).
Be prepared for retests or sideways action before the full breakout unfolds.
📌 Summary
🔹 Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle
🔹 Breakout Level: 1.1889 (confirmed)
🔹 Current Price: 1.2241
🔹 Target: 1.2909
🔹 Stop Loss: 1.1889
🔹 Timeframe: Weekly (Swing/Position)
🔹 Risk/Reward Ratio: Strong (approx 2.5–3:1)
📢 Conclusion:
The CHF/USD pair has successfully broken out of a textbook symmetrical triangle, signaling a major technical shift. As long as price holds above 1.1889, this setup remains valid with a projected upside toward 1.2909. Traders should monitor for pullbacks, confirm momentum, and manage risk accordingly.
This setup combines technical precision with sound market structure — a powerful combination for disciplined traders.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.