Crude oil can reach 146 in long term because a break ouit had performed on 76.39 with a strong green volume ( buyers volume). so, the other scenareo wich is not very objective that 47$ should have an strange phenomenen to accure as a big crisis.
Remeber that we do not have crystal ball to predict market future but we try to have some hypothesis at least will guide us to know what to do rationally and efficiently.
Good luck
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