CL1 - Short The News

5 minute TA and psychological video on crude oil.

I am short.

Not advice

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Note

Big dump to open the week and now this area is starting to look like a blow off top.

This may chop perhaps - who knows what the bots will do in low time frame...

But this has the potential to be a major peak and having entered short so high in the chart, my position is now protected.

This may be a short to hold for years, though I may end up taking profit on a hard dump and oversold chart.

Already in great profit 👍

Note

News headlines with "Oil Drops After Iran Says It Wants to End Hostilities With Israel" but the chart reality was that was a short squeeze based in bot controlled ratio / wave structure.

- News to get fundamentals based traders to buy followed by news to tell fundamentals based traders why its okay for them to carry the bags and that they're not getting scammed 😅.

Note

USOIL

Had a big bounce up to the top of the retracement Golden Window.

And it has printed a fast slump from just above the 0.786 overshoot ratio (yellow arrow).

As a trading educator, I have said very many times said that slightly above the 0.786 is a very common ratio for a failure swing to peak.

And so this looks reasonable odds to be topping out here.

I have also noticed on quite a few occasions (Bitcoin) corrections are often 5 waves as a sort of broken channel (channels / wedges etc often completing in 5 waves).

So we'll see; the 5 wave completion is just an idea but I'll be looking to see if it has topped now 5 waves are complete.

Anyhow, this is now an ideal moment to hop on a short position with momentum; since this may now be the initial collapsing structure underway.

It has bounced a little here and this might be great entry allowing for a little lower time frame movement.

I added to my short here 👍

Trade closed manually

Before the week closes, I have decided to exit this oil short.

There is a case for both sides in this area.

In terms of ratio, this could well be a dead cat waiting to roll over; topping out above the 0.786.

But after a big dump, the recovery has not had much significant wobble:

Slumps have quickly been bought back up.

It wobbled again a few hours ago but again it has been bought back up and now quite a flat trajectory is printing.

So I think this may be signalling consolidation.

...

The very fast ascent from the lows most likely signals instability.

And I stick with what I said before; which is that the driving force of this surge up is not from buyers rushing in to buy oil, but a short squeeze rally.

But a short squeeze does not have to end with only one impulsive rally, it could well have another wave up.

Regardless of whether there is another wave up, this uptrend will likely be a regressive wave that connects 2 major downtrends.

...

If there is another wave up it will be very impulsive.

And if it continues to hold and print a flat trajectory then I may buy a cheeky long, but not putting too much on the line.

Oil is only a dollar higher than my first entry and my second is at breakeven.

So I have exited here with not much loss.

...

If full on war breaks out then oil will be a very popular choice for non-technical buyers.

And if there is another wave up, that will cause a lot of FOMO.

Let's see how it develops 👍

Note

Hopefully you guys caught my next thread - a real banger

CL1 - GUDD Gap-UP-Dump-Down Pattern Calls The Top!

dRends35

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dRends35

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