📈 1. Technical Analysis – Daily Chart (CL1!)
The price has returned to a demand zone between 64.60 and 65.30, an area that previously triggered strong bullish reactions.
The July 22nd candle shows a clear lower wick, indicating potential buyer absorption and a possible short-term reversal.
The next key resistance lies between 67.80 and 68.80, which aligns with a well-defined supply zone.
Daily RSI remains weak but shows signs of bullish divergence, suggesting potential accumulation.
Bias: bullish from current levels, targeting 67.50 – 68.00. Invalidation on a daily close below 64.40.
2. Institutional Sentiment – COT Report (CFTC, July 15, 2025)
Non-Commercials (Speculators)
Long: 308,915 (↓ -24,223)
Short: 146,488 (↑ +22,724)
Net Position: sharply declining → bearish divergence in speculative sentiment
Commercials (Hedgers)
Long: 857,803 (↑ +66,342)
Short: 1,046,199 (↑ +18,118)
Net Position: still negative, but improving → reduced hedging = less downside pressure
📉 Interpretation:
Funds are closing longs and adding shorts, showing bearish positioning. However, commercials are slowly reducing their hedging exposure, which could indicate short-term stabilization if the technical support holds.
3. Seasonality
Periods analyzed: 20, 15, 10, 5, and 2 years
July historically shows negative average returns:
-0.71% (20Y)
-1.26% (15Y)
-1.37% (10Y)
The seasonal pattern indicates continued cyclical weakness into August.
📌 Interpretation:
The summer period typically brings seasonal bearish pressure, which aligns with current 2025 performance.
🌐 4. Macro & Fundamentals
EIA inventory builds for 3 consecutive weeks → demand weakness in the U.S.
No additional OPEC+ cuts announced → supply remains ample
Stable inflation data in the U.S. and China → no uptick in energy demand
Overall macro data is neutral with a slightly bearish short-term bias
The price has returned to a demand zone between 64.60 and 65.30, an area that previously triggered strong bullish reactions.
The July 22nd candle shows a clear lower wick, indicating potential buyer absorption and a possible short-term reversal.
The next key resistance lies between 67.80 and 68.80, which aligns with a well-defined supply zone.
Daily RSI remains weak but shows signs of bullish divergence, suggesting potential accumulation.
Bias: bullish from current levels, targeting 67.50 – 68.00. Invalidation on a daily close below 64.40.
2. Institutional Sentiment – COT Report (CFTC, July 15, 2025)
Non-Commercials (Speculators)
Long: 308,915 (↓ -24,223)
Short: 146,488 (↑ +22,724)
Net Position: sharply declining → bearish divergence in speculative sentiment
Commercials (Hedgers)
Long: 857,803 (↑ +66,342)
Short: 1,046,199 (↑ +18,118)
Net Position: still negative, but improving → reduced hedging = less downside pressure
📉 Interpretation:
Funds are closing longs and adding shorts, showing bearish positioning. However, commercials are slowly reducing their hedging exposure, which could indicate short-term stabilization if the technical support holds.
3. Seasonality
Periods analyzed: 20, 15, 10, 5, and 2 years
July historically shows negative average returns:
-0.71% (20Y)
-1.26% (15Y)
-1.37% (10Y)
The seasonal pattern indicates continued cyclical weakness into August.
📌 Interpretation:
The summer period typically brings seasonal bearish pressure, which aligns with current 2025 performance.
🌐 4. Macro & Fundamentals
EIA inventory builds for 3 consecutive weeks → demand weakness in the U.S.
No additional OPEC+ cuts announced → supply remains ample
Stable inflation data in the U.S. and China → no uptick in energy demand
Overall macro data is neutral with a slightly bearish short-term bias
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.