CLAM/USD Path of the Warrior
Updated
My last CLAM/USD chart had too many lines and overlapping colors, and I wanted to update the exponential channel to be a bit more accurate to my original intentions. The last high on wave 3 was 15 USD, so I'm looking to accumulate heavy here in the sub 5 dollar range (below the red line).
Overall, I think this range is very conservative but realistic. If anything, I think the trajectory of the channel should be slightly higher, ie. a price increase from 1.5-3 USD (the current consolidation price, -80/90% from high) of 1-2 magnitudes means the price would be ~15-300 USD, while my wave 5 on the chart is only showing ~50-60 USD. I think it's pretty fair, since we only saw 1 magnitude of increase the last few long-term waves. I like to be too conservative than greedy with these targets. The volatility is so advantageous here that overall magnitudes of price change don't matter too much. Just as long as you can survive the volatility! Because it's a small market, I prefer it because it's volatile, not because it might have a 2-3 magnitude price jump. The profit gained through volatility can be repeated very often and you can keep a more familiar price range, rather than having to move your sticks all the time, as with larger markets.
We're also testing the high of wave 1 right now. It looks interesting and might not go lower, but the bear market looks like it will keep us in this sideways channel for a while under our midline.
A nice idea I like to imagine is that if the BTC/USD price halves, the USD price of clams halves without the CLAM/BTC price having to move. Likewise, if the BTC/USD price doubles, the price of CLAM doesn't even have to move, satoshi-wise. So in this sense, I think the BTC price of CLAM could fall for a bit because of shorting, but relatively the USD price shouldn't move much. I'd actually be surprised if it went down to 1.5USD (90% regression) but volatility could bump it there for some very short intervals. Additionally, BTC/USD volatility could also have an upside as well, so it could bump from 3-6 USD very quickly if BTC makes moves and CLAM is quiet. And of course if BTC breaks out, we should break out into the next wave.
Good luck!
Overall, I think this range is very conservative but realistic. If anything, I think the trajectory of the channel should be slightly higher, ie. a price increase from 1.5-3 USD (the current consolidation price, -80/90% from high) of 1-2 magnitudes means the price would be ~15-300 USD, while my wave 5 on the chart is only showing ~50-60 USD. I think it's pretty fair, since we only saw 1 magnitude of increase the last few long-term waves. I like to be too conservative than greedy with these targets. The volatility is so advantageous here that overall magnitudes of price change don't matter too much. Just as long as you can survive the volatility! Because it's a small market, I prefer it because it's volatile, not because it might have a 2-3 magnitude price jump. The profit gained through volatility can be repeated very often and you can keep a more familiar price range, rather than having to move your sticks all the time, as with larger markets.
We're also testing the high of wave 1 right now. It looks interesting and might not go lower, but the bear market looks like it will keep us in this sideways channel for a while under our midline.
A nice idea I like to imagine is that if the BTC/USD price halves, the USD price of clams halves without the CLAM/BTC price having to move. Likewise, if the BTC/USD price doubles, the price of CLAM doesn't even have to move, satoshi-wise. So in this sense, I think the BTC price of CLAM could fall for a bit because of shorting, but relatively the USD price shouldn't move much. I'd actually be surprised if it went down to 1.5USD (90% regression) but volatility could bump it there for some very short intervals. Additionally, BTC/USD volatility could also have an upside as well, so it could bump from 3-6 USD very quickly if BTC makes moves and CLAM is quiet. And of course if BTC breaks out, we should break out into the next wave.
Good luck!
Note
Slightly different version: Note that it's hard to tell the amplitude of the next wave series so we could break out of our channel on the upside.
Note
Even more bullish version with wave 5 at 150$:Note
Another one, more bullish but still realistic, maybe a bit FOMO here:Note
We're in the buy zone. I also updated wave 5 to be more realistic =p
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