Price Approaching Strong Resistance Area
Updated
Hi,
I just came back from a long holiday since November last year. I hope you are all in good shape physically, mentally and spiritually. May 2019 be an excellent year for us raking profits from the oil market. :)
The price of crude oil is moving above the Daily 9 EMA (pink line) and also the EMA 21 (blue line) and EMA 34 (black line). That should give us a crystal perspective on the current trend: UPTREND.
Unfortunately, price has reach a cluster of resistance areas. The bearish divergence at MACD's histogram is giving us a hint that price is lacking the bull momentum. Those who swing trade should take some profits and trail their SL to break even.
I'm not sure price will fall down and break below 42.36 (continuous chart) or not because right now, I can see 2 possibilities of wave count:-
1. This is a start of a new uptrend, where right now price is making an impulsive 5 leg upward moves
or...
2. This is just a big retracement, where price is completing wave C and then price will plunge further down or it will make a complex correction (double/triple tree) before continue to fall.
In my opinion, the bulls shouldn't be too optimistic that the long term trend had emerged and price is rocketing up to the moon. At Daily tf (continuous chart), the MACD lines are still below the zero line, although the histogram is above it. In retracement phase, that MACD's pattern is normal. More confirmation needed for anyone to be ultra bullish on Crude Oil.
Lastly, I would like to share a short term long setup that I missed this morning while I was sending my wonderful kids to school:
Happy trading!
Note
It seems the bulls have gained more momentum and manage to close above the first blue box from below.More blue boxes ahead! :)
Note
That is the chart for June contract (CLM2019). Price stalled at the blue box area (resistance). If price can break above the blue box, it might reach a supply area (pink box). That is the most potential area where the banks are waiting to push the price down again. Nevertheless, if price breaks higher, the red box is another strong resistance area.
I am keen to say price is going down. The max it could go up is at the pink box. If you want to read an analysis base on pure price action, you can read here: bit.ly/2UM30AH
Note
Sorry. The recent Daily chart is not for June contract. It is for April. But the patterns are the same.
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