From Degens to Dividends
COIN is 350% up since our first analysis in 2023 and Coinbase is expected to be added to the S&P 500
Getting invited to this very exclusive Moon Club means
Around $15 billion in passive inflows: Based on index tracking fund mandates, ~$ 15B in capital may be allocated to
COIN following its inclusion.
Short term price appreciation likely: Historical data suggests stocks added to the S&P 500 tend to experience a near-term price increase in the range of 3–8%
Involuntary exposure from passive investors: Even crypto skeptics who invest primarily through broad index funds will gain exposure to Coinbase by default.
The Basis for These Projections:
1. Bitwise predicts a $ 15B allocation
The S&P 500 has roughly $ 10 trillion in total assets benchmarked to it, spanning ETFs, mutual funds, pensions, and institutional portfolios. According to Bitwise, roughly 0.15% of that capital around $ 15 billion could be directed toward Coinbase upon its formal inclusion in the index
A $ 15 billion passive allocation represents roughly 30% of Coinbase’s pre announcement market capitalization (estimated at $50B). This underscores the potential scale of index-driven demand.
2. Outperformance Ahead of Schedule
Historically, companies newly added to the S&P 500 tend to experience a short-term price appreciation of 3–8% post announcement however, Coinbase has already significantly outpaced that trend.
Since the announcement was made public last night, COIN has surged approximately 21.5%, suggesting that the market is pricing in the anticipated passive inflows—and perhaps broader sentiment shifts toward crypto-related equities.
3. Widespread, Indirect Ownership of Coinbase Is Imminent
Due to the prevalence of S&P 500 exposure in global retirement portfolios including pension funds, 401(k)s, and equivalent vehicles a broad base of passive investors will soon hold Coinbase shares, even if they’re unaware or ideologically opposed to crypto.
This means that through index allocations, individuals across the financial spectrum including skeptics will now have Coinbase exposure by default. Yes, even the staunchest critics of crypto will find themselves involuntarily invested—such as the proverbial “Uncle Steve” who swears Bitcoin is a scam.
S&P Additions Are Not Zero Sum Neutral
For every company added to the S&P 500, another must be removed to maintain the index’s structure. Coinbase’s inclusion means another firm has been displaced a meaningful signal for relative positioning in U.S. equity markets.
Right Place, Right Pump
The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report just came out and inflation came in lower than expected. In other words, the rate at which prices are rising is slowing down.
That might not sound like a big deal at first but it is. Here’s why:
Lower than expected inflation gives the Federal Reserve more room to start cutting interest rates. Even a small justification helps. And when rate cuts begin, it sets off a chain reaction:
Borrowing becomes cheaper
Credit becomes more accessible
Liquidity increases in the economy
Asset prices tend to rise
In short: looser financial conditions = more money flowing into markets.
Now, what does this mean for crypto?
Historically, when financial conditions ease driven by lower interest rates, a weaker dollar, and falling commodity prices (all of which we’re now starting to see) Bitcoin tends to respond with a lag of roughly three months. if this easing trend continues, we could see meaningful upside in BTC in the near future
COIN is 350% up since our first analysis in 2023 and Coinbase is expected to be added to the S&P 500
Getting invited to this very exclusive Moon Club means
Around $15 billion in passive inflows: Based on index tracking fund mandates, ~$ 15B in capital may be allocated to
COIN following its inclusion.Short term price appreciation likely: Historical data suggests stocks added to the S&P 500 tend to experience a near-term price increase in the range of 3–8%
Involuntary exposure from passive investors: Even crypto skeptics who invest primarily through broad index funds will gain exposure to Coinbase by default.
The Basis for These Projections:
1. Bitwise predicts a $ 15B allocation
The S&P 500 has roughly $ 10 trillion in total assets benchmarked to it, spanning ETFs, mutual funds, pensions, and institutional portfolios. According to Bitwise, roughly 0.15% of that capital around $ 15 billion could be directed toward Coinbase upon its formal inclusion in the index
A $ 15 billion passive allocation represents roughly 30% of Coinbase’s pre announcement market capitalization (estimated at $50B). This underscores the potential scale of index-driven demand.
2. Outperformance Ahead of Schedule
Historically, companies newly added to the S&P 500 tend to experience a short-term price appreciation of 3–8% post announcement however, Coinbase has already significantly outpaced that trend.
Since the announcement was made public last night, COIN has surged approximately 21.5%, suggesting that the market is pricing in the anticipated passive inflows—and perhaps broader sentiment shifts toward crypto-related equities.
3. Widespread, Indirect Ownership of Coinbase Is Imminent
Due to the prevalence of S&P 500 exposure in global retirement portfolios including pension funds, 401(k)s, and equivalent vehicles a broad base of passive investors will soon hold Coinbase shares, even if they’re unaware or ideologically opposed to crypto.
This means that through index allocations, individuals across the financial spectrum including skeptics will now have Coinbase exposure by default. Yes, even the staunchest critics of crypto will find themselves involuntarily invested—such as the proverbial “Uncle Steve” who swears Bitcoin is a scam.
S&P Additions Are Not Zero Sum Neutral
For every company added to the S&P 500, another must be removed to maintain the index’s structure. Coinbase’s inclusion means another firm has been displaced a meaningful signal for relative positioning in U.S. equity markets.
Right Place, Right Pump
The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report just came out and inflation came in lower than expected. In other words, the rate at which prices are rising is slowing down.
That might not sound like a big deal at first but it is. Here’s why:
Lower than expected inflation gives the Federal Reserve more room to start cutting interest rates. Even a small justification helps. And when rate cuts begin, it sets off a chain reaction:
Borrowing becomes cheaper
Credit becomes more accessible
Liquidity increases in the economy
Asset prices tend to rise
In short: looser financial conditions = more money flowing into markets.
Now, what does this mean for crypto?
Historically, when financial conditions ease driven by lower interest rates, a weaker dollar, and falling commodity prices (all of which we’re now starting to see) Bitcoin tends to respond with a lag of roughly three months. if this easing trend continues, we could see meaningful upside in BTC in the near future
Trade active
Market volatility continues to decline across most asset classes, as a lack of impactful news and economic data has led to a quieter trading environment. Despite the nonstop news flow, investors seem increasingly indifferent to negative headlines that previously would have triggered stronger market reactions.U.S. bond yields have come down after last week’s market turbulence driven by the unveiling of the “big, beautiful bill.” Still, with the debt-to-GDP ratio sitting above 120%, the bill’s projected $3.8 trillion addition to national debt keeps fiscal concerns firmly in view.
Yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasuries have dipped below 4.5% and 5.0%, respectively. Meanwhile, Japan’s 30-year JGB has slipped under 3%. While these yields remain elevated by historical standards, near-term risks have diminished.
Attention is now turning to the upcoming June Treasury auctions for 10-, 20-, and 30-year bonds. Japan is also in focus, with the Ministry of Finance set to issue 40-year bonds today and another 30-year tranche next week. Aware of investor hesitance around long-duration debt, the MOF may adjust its issuance strategy to help stabilize that part of the curve.
For now, markets are in a “Goldilocks” phase—conditions are neither too hot nor too cold. Recent data releases show little impact from last month’s tariffs, but it will take time for consumers and businesses to adjust behavior. The true economic response may not show up until the third quarter. The Fed seems to share this view, largely ignoring short-term data unless a sharp downturn occurs.
In a rare twist, Washington could be warming up to crypto again. Senator Lummis’s recent remarks on stablecoins and a potential Bitcoin Strategic Reserve have reignited expectations for regulatory momentum. Progress on digital asset policy has stalled since the administration took office, but the current conference may reengage the White House.
Meanwhile, Trump Media is reportedly seeking to raise $2.5 billion and establish its own Bitcoin Reserve. If the conference generates real traction, more firms could follow the path of Strategy and Metaplanet adding fresh, structural demand to the crypto market.
Trade closed: target reached
A surprising rise in job openings boosted investor confidence ahead of Friday’s critical U.S. payrolls report, pushing the S&P 500 closer to the key 6,000 mark. A stable non-farm payroll (NFP) figure would strengthen the Fed’s case that the labor market remains robust, reinforcing the outlook for interest rates to stay unchanged.On the geopolitical front, markets are in a holding pattern as investors await the expected meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. In the crypto space, BTC front-end volatility has declined, with the spot price hovering around $105K. One-month implied volatility has dropped below 40. Meanwhile, in fixed income, trading activity in Chinese 10-year and 30-year government bond futures has declined to the lowest levels since February, signaling cautious sentiment and reduced positioning.
BTC continues to trade within a narrow range, with light positioning and a balanced skew indicating limited directional bias. The volatility curve has flattened from the middle to longer maturities since May, mirroring the drop in the VIX, and encouraging selective long-vega strategies. Notably, September $130K BTC calls were bought at 47 volatility, suggesting some speculative interest in upside potential for Q3.
Looking ahead, the third quarter may bring new challenges. Tariff-related effects could begin appearing in economic data, while ongoing debates around the “Big Beautiful Bill” and the debt ceiling may trigger headline-driven volatility. Without a clear market catalyst, BTC is unlikely to break out of its current range in the near term.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🟣MasterClass moonypto.com/masterclass
🟢Signal moonypto.com/signal
🔵News t.me/moonypto
⚪ t.me/moonyptofarsi
🟢Signal moonypto.com/signal
🔵News t.me/moonypto
⚪ t.me/moonyptofarsi
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.