A while back, I remember wanting to get into algorithmic trading. I love math & all, but once one thing led to another & eventually I found myself trying to understand mechanics & quantum physics & computer learning - there was no way lmao. I tried, & it ultimately did help come up with my own strategy that I've gotten accustomed to. But since then, the most helpful & my favorite recollection of all things math & stocks is the bubble report. Chances are if you've seen bitcoin - you could tell it was a bubble, but probably didn't know when it'd pop, how long it'd take to recover (if ever), & where the top of it would be. Whether it's stocks, forex, bitcoin, commodities, etc., a bubble is a bubble. The best way (might be the only.?) to describe a 'bubble' is when exponential growth exceeds linear growth; historical growth (x) surpasses the equilibrium rate of growth (y) over time, & instead of a linear graph - you need a logarithmic graph just to make fit. A new bubble report is released each month & I remember seeing Costco on it w/ a 98% "bubble" score. Kept it on watch, but seeing as implied volatility is in it's top 25 percentile - better late than never lmao. I made this layout back during my experimenting on producing actual results to use moving averages as a "bubble" finder - bitcoin was my original start & I saved it since then. Although you can only see one (red) moving average, there's two. The 2nd is a weighted moving average for a half a year longer, while the red is a shorter, exponential moving average based off lows. I made the 2nd the same color as the background w/ thicker width that way whenever the (red) crosses over it - both moving averages disappear in an indication of faster exponential growth without an equilibrium. Although you can't see the 2nd moving average - click on any one of the yellow rectangles & you'll get an idea. I was supposed to make a comment about how this chart reminds me of Venezuela's inflation rate but, yeah. Better late than never. If you wana check out that bubble report,
Link - ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/mtec/chair-of-entrepreneurial-risks-dam/documents/FCO/FCO-Cockpit-August_2018.pdf
Link - ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/mtec/chair-of-entrepreneurial-risks-dam/documents/FCO/FCO-Cockpit-August_2018.pdf
Trade closed: target reached
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.