Full crash and overshoot of the mean.
Updated
As a general rule, parabolic trends will tend to correct sharply, get back to the mean, spike out the mean/previous low and then return to the mean where either a new uptrend starts or it meanders along sideways for a while.
A return to the mean in this case would be a massive percentage gain.
A return to the mean in this case would be a massive percentage gain.
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Fair case to be made for this being a bit toppy now. If this turns into a false breakout that might be the end of the rally.
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Starting to very seriously consider the short on this now. I'm just cautious because ... well, the ATR is high.
I don't want to short and get spiked out in a final blow off.
But I certainly don't like the long side any more for a swing trade.
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I think 80 is a really good level for a potential top here but I don't think I can justify shorting something with this much vol while it's still 20% - 25% under the obvious resistance (Which I marked in on the original post at 8 as 100 - 110 and still think is the case). Conceptually, I think it's a short.
Strategically, I can't short it under 100. I'd prefer to miss the trade than take the gap risk.
If I was wrong 80 but right about a downtrend, I'd expect a 20% gap. Don't want that risk.
But certainly not an advocate for being long this any more.
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Hmm. 90 hit. Short is getting much more tempting.
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90 hit and it did it in that sketchy spike up move I was talking about being afraid of in the previous updates. Maybe going to pull the trigger on this.
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