Time for actual currency coins. Elliot & Wykoff on Dash
Updated
Introduction
I basically see there are 4 kinds of coins
and we are now at the time where the actual currency coins are going to run.
Analysis and Trade history
The main chart shows a rising wedge which I was expecting to break to the upside, and it did. My margin trade entry was within the wedge based on how tight the price action was and how tight one can get their stops in there. Once I saw at 5 there was some topping behavior and not a continuation so I closed the trade. Drew my 5 count and waited. I would like to be able to just set some limit orders but often my exchange won't open trades on limit orders, they say that THEY have insufficient margin pool to fill the trades and I have to manually enter my trades when they are on target at about 1/5th of the portion I want so they can get filled.
The shaded box was created as the buy box because Elliot wave says the ABC correction completes within wave 4. So far we are still within the ABC correction and I am expecting a running flat correction where we return to about the low of A. The whole Elliot wave pattern will be broken if price goes below the low of 4. From there this becomes wave 1 and 2 of the larger move to the upside. This trade relies on the trend lines of the wedge being extended and each trend line is roughly its own target for where price action could show some bottoming.
This chart shows DASH with a fib channel. I have not spelled out all the steps of the Wykoff due to my times sake but if know the theory you can see it clearly and if you don't I recommend you do a study for your own edification.
and here it is on the log chart with the anchor points circled up. The average true range is getting lift off from a multi year low that we tested over 3 years. We also see that the price action is stalling halve way between the fib channel. This running flat correction on lower time frames is going to look like a flag pole continuation pattern I would expect that we will see some activity at the 0.382 level, either testing it as resistance or blasting through and settling on top of it.
My assessment is that for everyone that feels like they missed out on buying the lows of BTC and ETH and some other coins and they wondering if it is too late to buy in actual currency coins before they start to run is a very good idea. The longer the accumulation the better the run will be (I assess and hope. Nothing can be guaranteed of course). We will still have our 50% corrections and all that so you can still be a bad trader and lose money if you emotional regulation causes you to lose sight of you plan.
For my portfolio I am looking at putting most of my current investments into actual currency coins except some stuff I bough so undervalued against btc and eth that I won't ever want to sell it all (chainlink).
Homework
You guys can take this template and do some target setting on your top coins for volatility. Getting use to finding the 5 count is one of the most important things you can do in trading. Here is the same concepts applied to cardano/adausd. I don't see this one as being a running flat, I see this as your simple ABC correction. As I mentioned higher up, I would love just to be able to set some limit orders and protect my self with stop losses below the low of wave 4 but my exchange, for some reason and for some how, never lets those awesome trades fill.
Note on Linked Ideas
My linked ideas show where I basically did the same analysis on BTC and then re-enforced my call that this was my call when a whole bunch of TVers and youtubers lost their heads. The "battleplanning" post was charting the hypothetical if BTC was going to double top because I like to always have the bearish scenario in my head so I don't hold my way to the bottom. I took my margined risk off and waited to see how things were going to play out. There is a chance still that the ABC correction I see is a double top because running flats can look like double tops and it all hinges on what happens on the C wave. If it goes below point 4 then my bullish pattern is invalid.
I basically see there are 4 kinds of coins
- Digital Gold - bitcoin and clones and replacements
- Application coins- Ethereum being the largest one and its replacements
- Actual currency coins - Dash, bitcoin cash, Monero
- memecoins/trashcoins - doge and the like
and we are now at the time where the actual currency coins are going to run.
Analysis and Trade history
The main chart shows a rising wedge which I was expecting to break to the upside, and it did. My margin trade entry was within the wedge based on how tight the price action was and how tight one can get their stops in there. Once I saw at 5 there was some topping behavior and not a continuation so I closed the trade. Drew my 5 count and waited. I would like to be able to just set some limit orders but often my exchange won't open trades on limit orders, they say that THEY have insufficient margin pool to fill the trades and I have to manually enter my trades when they are on target at about 1/5th of the portion I want so they can get filled.
The shaded box was created as the buy box because Elliot wave says the ABC correction completes within wave 4. So far we are still within the ABC correction and I am expecting a running flat correction where we return to about the low of A. The whole Elliot wave pattern will be broken if price goes below the low of 4. From there this becomes wave 1 and 2 of the larger move to the upside. This trade relies on the trend lines of the wedge being extended and each trend line is roughly its own target for where price action could show some bottoming.
This chart shows DASH with a fib channel. I have not spelled out all the steps of the Wykoff due to my times sake but if know the theory you can see it clearly and if you don't I recommend you do a study for your own edification.
and here it is on the log chart with the anchor points circled up. The average true range is getting lift off from a multi year low that we tested over 3 years. We also see that the price action is stalling halve way between the fib channel. This running flat correction on lower time frames is going to look like a flag pole continuation pattern I would expect that we will see some activity at the 0.382 level, either testing it as resistance or blasting through and settling on top of it.
My assessment is that for everyone that feels like they missed out on buying the lows of BTC and ETH and some other coins and they wondering if it is too late to buy in actual currency coins before they start to run is a very good idea. The longer the accumulation the better the run will be (I assess and hope. Nothing can be guaranteed of course). We will still have our 50% corrections and all that so you can still be a bad trader and lose money if you emotional regulation causes you to lose sight of you plan.
For my portfolio I am looking at putting most of my current investments into actual currency coins except some stuff I bough so undervalued against btc and eth that I won't ever want to sell it all (chainlink).
Homework
You guys can take this template and do some target setting on your top coins for volatility. Getting use to finding the 5 count is one of the most important things you can do in trading. Here is the same concepts applied to cardano/adausd. I don't see this one as being a running flat, I see this as your simple ABC correction. As I mentioned higher up, I would love just to be able to set some limit orders and protect my self with stop losses below the low of wave 4 but my exchange, for some reason and for some how, never lets those awesome trades fill.
Note on Linked Ideas
My linked ideas show where I basically did the same analysis on BTC and then re-enforced my call that this was my call when a whole bunch of TVers and youtubers lost their heads. The "battleplanning" post was charting the hypothetical if BTC was going to double top because I like to always have the bearish scenario in my head so I don't hold my way to the bottom. I took my margined risk off and waited to see how things were going to play out. There is a chance still that the ABC correction I see is a double top because running flats can look like double tops and it all hinges on what happens on the C wave. If it goes below point 4 then my bullish pattern is invalid.
Note
I was initially looking for an ABC running flat correction but I have decided to put some risk on with the hope this is an ascending triangle. This is a more aggressive entry that most text books because should look for a retest of the neckline or a break with volume. But all in all this is a solid entry for me because I saw an opportunity to get in there with a tight stop.Note
So far very happy with changing my assessment that we may have an ABC flat to an ABC triangle. The momentum on the Ascending Triangle will be reached will probably be very impulsive and overperformance is likewise very probable.I remain astounded that I don't see the chatter I would expect on dash, given how well it is doing.
Note
My flagpole target was reached and now we have seen 300 tested as support. We still may test the top of the ascending triangle as support but I think we many not have too. We also hit the rising support of the ascending triangle as well which means DASH has a chance of never going below $300 ever again.I am going to give this some time and if I like what I will see I will move my stops up yet again to secure even more gains should this reverse in my face.
Trade closed: stop reached
Stopped out in the money.
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