Dash USD - Buy and hold for 2022
Hello Traders and Analysts,
Welcome to 2022.
This year, less posting, but more closer measurement analysing a smaller group of pairs.
This refines analysis and provides clearer insights, while the principles of investment are still covered in detail.
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Note* this analysis is a positional accumulation using a cost average upon positional aggregation. Short term losses incurred will not be realised, instead buying opportunities will be added. For CFD purposes, positions can be added with wider stop losses but minimal risk lost.
Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence.
Master Key for zones
Welcome to 2022.
This year, less posting, but more closer measurement analysing a smaller group of pairs.
This refines analysis and provides clearer insights, while the principles of investment are still covered in detail.
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Note* this analysis is a positional accumulation using a cost average upon positional aggregation. Short term losses incurred will not be realised, instead buying opportunities will be added. For CFD purposes, positions can be added with wider stop losses but minimal risk lost.
Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence.
Master Key for zones
- Red = Three Month
- Blue = Monthly
- Purple = weekly
- Scarlet [Red] - Four day
- Orange = Daily
- Green = 8 Hour
- Grey = 4hour
- Pink = 1 hour
Monthly Imbalance for buying
The main criteria for longs
Strong wicks showing that the zone has failed to close within the imbalance.
Net close out of the imbalance using August 20 - this coincides with the new monthly wicks proceeding creating higher highs.
We have an inside bar which essentially on the monthly provides a bear trap - look down below for the weekly to see the change of hands closer.
Looking left, the monthly candlesticks have created moves to establish supply imbalances.Adding supply imbalance as targets
Structure understanding
Using the Fibonacci from price formations - this has established zone for profit targets and change of hands zones which is a logical positional play in technical analysis.
Things which are critical to understand here - The swing low of the Fibonacci starts at "1", whereby price has established a strong imbalance candle
- The other established area is the retracement from the high, which >90% confidence within back testing scenarios across 11 crypto pairs, the established supply imbalance from the "0" or top of the swing - (which also aligns with a previous wick close). Price will look to a weekly pivot point.
- Price will extend to -0.618 or 1.1618 Fibonacci, which will provide a zone where price will enter a profit taking zone and subsequently a over buying imbalance and now create a selling imbalance. Not the previous top wick closes in line with the bearish open price.
Weekly Imbalances
Daily Fibonacci Sequence completed
Price now has to break the following levels. - I'm aware on the weekly a short opportunity is still present as the monthly zone can still be tested to buy at $108-100 zone, but the monthly also shows a positional change of hands from supply to demand imbalances.
- If the scenario where a rejection of either -0.27 [$150] and or -0.618 [$123.63] is present, then sell positions can be added to hedge or await buying due to the nature of a bear trap in smaller timescales.
Let's view the Fibonacci chart
The swing high and swing low can be applied, measured sells between $245-$222 would have been a high probability of a selling imbalance, this is due to the gearing of daily candle sticks forming a basis of structure which on the three day chart [see 1.1] shows the netting off, where the imbalance meets the close out.1.1
Here is the three day chart, which shows the selling imbalance where the netting had occurred. (note, on the weekly the wick created a half weekly high within the imbalance zone).What now?
Well, two scenarios will occur for the bullish curve
1. being the likelihood of a buying position from a breakout of the buy where price will climb after being squeezed but creates lower highs on the daily and three day chart.
2. The second scenario, is based on the imbalance being retested on a deeper correction whereby the -0.618 [daily is tested] or on a higher timeframe, Monthly* - the correction will be based on the wick low (looking left).
So long as the chart pushes up and to the right, longs are activated.Buying zones - daily, removedCrypto dominancePossibilities
Since it is impossible to predict paths understand scenario analysis I have concluded these two scenarios to create two pathways, there are opportunities to buy accumulate positions here.
Orange - follows closer to a daily timeframe
Weekly - downside can still occur, but will tail off due to additional volume, cash conversion to buying, profit taking from sellers to buying inputs.Do you enjoy the setups?
- Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
- Focus on technical output not fundamentals
- Position and swing trades
- Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
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To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXII
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