Mr. Dax – get shorty (2)
Updated
Hello everyone,
Exactly as predicted in my last analysis (please check link below) Mr. Dax was moving up. I think it is a corrective wave 4, so the purple box in the chart is a decision-box. Either the Dax is changing its direction to a stable, impulsive uptrend (chance 25%, red line in the chart), or is completing the whole corrective pattern of one wave degree higher down to the yellow box (blue or green lines). The question is: in which wave degree we are in (cyan or purple).
Scenario 1 – red line, chance 25%
The high at 13.525 was wave 3 (cyan) and the correction pattern we are in since then is wave 4 (cyan). There is a chance, that we have seen the bottom of wave 4 (cyan) already at 11.051. If so, we are in an uptrend already. The purple box in the chart is the decision/sore point, because if the will fail at 12.120 this scenario will be invalidated.
Scenario 2 – blue line, chance 35%
The high at 13.525 was wave 3 of a higher wave degree (dark green in square brackets) and the corrective pattern we are in since then is wave 4 of this wave degree – there is more space to the downside!
If so, we are in the last impulsive structure (wave C of 4 as a five-wave-structure) down to complete wave 4 at around 10.400/10.200.
Scenario 3 – green line, chance 40%
The same wave degree as described in scenario 2, but with much more downforce. Wave 4 (dark green in square brackets) could easily end between 9.600 and 8.700! This we have to keep in mind.
What do we do with this information: if the Dax will fail at 12.120, we could go short to catch the downtrend to the bottom of wave 4. If the Dax will go up, we have to recount and catch the next 1-2 wave setup.
Please leave a comment or a message if you have any questions or other ideas!
Take care,
tgo
Exactly as predicted in my last analysis (please check link below) Mr. Dax was moving up. I think it is a corrective wave 4, so the purple box in the chart is a decision-box. Either the Dax is changing its direction to a stable, impulsive uptrend (chance 25%, red line in the chart), or is completing the whole corrective pattern of one wave degree higher down to the yellow box (blue or green lines). The question is: in which wave degree we are in (cyan or purple).
Scenario 1 – red line, chance 25%
The high at 13.525 was wave 3 (cyan) and the correction pattern we are in since then is wave 4 (cyan). There is a chance, that we have seen the bottom of wave 4 (cyan) already at 11.051. If so, we are in an uptrend already. The purple box in the chart is the decision/sore point, because if the will fail at 12.120 this scenario will be invalidated.
Scenario 2 – blue line, chance 35%
The high at 13.525 was wave 3 of a higher wave degree (dark green in square brackets) and the corrective pattern we are in since then is wave 4 of this wave degree – there is more space to the downside!
If so, we are in the last impulsive structure (wave C of 4 as a five-wave-structure) down to complete wave 4 at around 10.400/10.200.
Scenario 3 – green line, chance 40%
The same wave degree as described in scenario 2, but with much more downforce. Wave 4 (dark green in square brackets) could easily end between 9.600 and 8.700! This we have to keep in mind.
What do we do with this information: if the Dax will fail at 12.120, we could go short to catch the downtrend to the bottom of wave 4. If the Dax will go up, we have to recount and catch the next 1-2 wave setup.
Please leave a comment or a message if you have any questions or other ideas!
Take care,
tgo
Note
Mr. Dax is most likely ending its final sequence of the correction. Ideal target for a turning point: 10.255. Not very likely is a direct movement up. If this nevertheless will happen, we will get the long entry at the next 1-2 setup, which will built with abolutely sureness...
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