Short

Updated

DAX Short 1 hour

Selling short in upward momentum. Topping around 14200. Selling pressure will increase due to the German import prices which stands at 31.2% in March, highest in 48 yrs and above market expectations. Take into account that there is an possibility that an announcement will take place in the upcoming days from Gazprom about gas deliveries to Germany are about to set on hold for May~. In that case things may start plunge in rapid pace, which is positive on the risk reward ratio.

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Friday in after-trade the dax fell below 14000 points. That's positive for the short-term profit target. The price is now also below the 50 EMA on the 4 hour chart. The stop loss could now be lowered to Friday's high.

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Long term downward pressure remains
- Eurozone consumer confidence falls further in April standing at negative 22 points
- German manufacturing PMI at 20-month low in April ( but still above 50 and better than expected)
- German retail sales down 2.7% in March (due to inflation)
- German Economy Minister Robert Habeck stated on Monday during a press conference that the country "must continue to expect higher energy prices and as an economy"
- Lindner: Germany's goal is full independence from Russia (let prices rise)

In the premarket the prices fall just above the profit target and is now testing the 14000 range. Short term profit target now extended to 13620. Stop loss just above friday high

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France to ''continue paying'' for gas in euros, dollars - minister --> Politicians don't want to understand that Russia has Europe by the balls. Huge long term downward risk, as Europe is at merci of Russia regarding deliveries of gas. Any negative announcement by Russia regarding deliveries of gas to Europe could plunge markets in rapid pace.

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Scholz: EU to suspend Russian coal by summer "even if this necessarily implies economic costs for ourselves." --> which means breaking down the economy and make the people pay

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By the balls means: Italy willing to pay for gas in rubles for a few months "I think it would be good for a few months," said Italian Ecology Transition Minister Roberto Cingolani

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The dax still fighting the 14000 area and holding tight to the 50-EMA on the 4 hour chart. Downward pressure remains. Like to see a closing candle crossing below the 13850 which could trigger a rally to 13500

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- The yield on Germany's benchmark 10-year government bond topped 1% on Tuesday, crossing the mark for the first time since June 2015.
- German unemployment rate at 5% in April (a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month but slowing down due to Russia's war against Ukraine.)
- Ruble continues rise against dollar, euro. (Selling gas and other Russian commodities in Rubbles will increase the demand for rubbles. Europe has to pay more for energy which will results in higher production cost)

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Keep in mind that the ruble is now also backed by gold since March 8. RUB5,000 for a gram of gold. The main goal of these moves is to try to ensure the credibility of the ruble by making it more desirable in the forex market and to influence the dollar which is used to trade for international goods.

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Putin signs retaliatory measures against 'unfriendly' countries ''..as well as a ban on exports of raw materials and products from Russia to those targeted by the measures'' (upside inflation risk)

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I'm adding an additional short position to the Fed's rate decision forecast. I think the market doesn't like to digest whatever they intend to say.

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Digesting is a process that comes with hours.

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Yellen: ''Fed will need to be skillful, lucky to lower inflation''. --> Sounds like a best gambling quote on luck.

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United States Treasury yields increased further on Thursday after the decline sparked by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks ended.

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I took some profit around 13620 my first profit target for this week. The rest of my positions I'm holding towards 13000, which will give insight into the coming week. Any soft top between the 13800-14000 area can be shorted with a stop loss above the 14100 which give a good risk/reward ratio.

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- Reasonable to raise rates to positive by end of year - ECB's Villeroy. On inflation, the Bank of France governor said expectations are less and less anchored at 2% now.
- Ten-year German bond yield highest since mid-2014 (rose by 7.5 basis points at 3:17 pm CET to 1.117%)
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.. insisted the EU must end its dependence on Russian oil and gas.
- Italy 10y risk spread over Germany jumps >200bps.

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- UK to send $1.6B in military aid to Ukraine (War mongering)
- Trudeau visits Kiev, announces new weapons (War mongering)
- EU chief blasts Russia in Europe day speech (War mongering)
- US imposes more sanctions against Russia (inflation risk)
- State Dept sanctions 7 Russian shipping firms (inflation risk)
- UK expands sanctions on Russia, Belarus (inflation risk)
- Japan to ban Russian oil imports - PM (inflation risk)

- Russia to 'consider measures' if Finland joins NATO (unknown)

DATA: A cumulative total of U.S. military aid to Ukraine since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion.

February 25: $350m
March 12: $550m
March 16: $1.35b
April 1: $1.65b
April 5: $1.75b
April 13: $2.55b
April 21: $3.35b
April 24: $3.67b
April 28: $14.67b (if approved by Congress)

Heading for a WO3 withing 2-1 years from now? At least the world will have to pay for it..

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- US Treasury yields rise as sell-off continues
- Sentix: Eurozone investor confidence down in May
- Buffet ratio at 122% for MSCI World, which is above the 100% threshold. Stocks are still not cheap.

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- Pakistan has detected its first case of the Omicron sub-variant, the National Institute of Health reported. This new sub-variant is causing increasing number of COVID-19 cases in different countries, the NIH said. (deflation risk)
- UN and WEF announce to accelerate Agenda 2030. (Totalitarianism risk, in most negative sense)

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I closed a second position at 13560 because if you have a look on the 30 min chart the price held 13541. In the afternoon we might see a price above the 13620-13680+. Just have a look for another short entry or when the falls below the 13530 we could see a further sell off

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- Citi: ECB to raise rates in July and September
- ZEW: German economic sentiment up in May (improved by 6.7 points in May amounting to minus 34.3 points but still remaining at a relatively low level.)

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- US inflation at 8.3% in April (overshoots estimates)
- 10-year Treasury yield climbs above 3% after CPI report
- Russia sanctions Gazprom Germania, 30 others
- Lagarde: Rate hike could come weeks after APP purchases end, "it looks increasingly unlikely that the disinflationary dynamics of the past decade will return"
- Germany to train Ukrainian soldiers on Panzerhaubitze 2000
- Lavrov: It is not Russia that wants war in Europe

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- US House backs $39.8B more in Ukriane aid (most of it for weapons etc)
- Stablecoin 'Terra' Collapses In 'Digital Bank Run' (its a learning process from ancient history; only gold will last)

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