Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes could not stay at the highs and bears showed some strength by closing the gaps we left behind on Friday. SP500 and nasdaq rallied into the close on weak volume but bulls nevertheless also showed strength and for the day we mostly moved sideways. Both sides have reasonable buying/selling pressure and arguments on their side. That’s why we can expect more sideways price action.
dax
comment: Big Globex gap up, big down, big up, big down and then dax did not rally as hard as sp500 and nasdaq did. Market was formed a triangle on the 1h tf and we have tested Friday’s breakout price 18590. Since we are at the lower third of the range and it’s clearly trading range price action, r:r is on the bull side for at least 18700 again. So either the triangle plays out and we move more sideways or we break above for 18800 or higher.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18750
bull case: Bulls see the low today as a retest and market is now free to pump again. The gap to 18655 closing price will probably be closed overnight and then bulls will probably retest 18700 or higher next.
Invalidation is below 18470.
bear case: Bears surprised the bulls with 2 strong legs down today. The breakout above 18720 looked decent and trapped many bulls buying high in a trading range. Bears could not touch last week’s closing price 18531, which is a sign of weakness. They closed below the daily and the 1h ema, which strengthens their case but given that it’s a clear trading range, not many bears want to sell below 18600.
Invalidation is above 18750.
short term: Up for 18700 and maybe higher. Play the range until clear breakout
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling the double top bar 28 + 54 one tick below bar 54. Was good for 160 points. My room caught a 100+ banger to the downside.
overall market comment
Indexes could not stay at the highs and bears showed some strength by closing the gaps we left behind on Friday. SP500 and nasdaq rallied into the close on weak volume but bulls nevertheless also showed strength and for the day we mostly moved sideways. Both sides have reasonable buying/selling pressure and arguments on their side. That’s why we can expect more sideways price action.
dax
comment: Big Globex gap up, big down, big up, big down and then dax did not rally as hard as sp500 and nasdaq did. Market was formed a triangle on the 1h tf and we have tested Friday’s breakout price 18590. Since we are at the lower third of the range and it’s clearly trading range price action, r:r is on the bull side for at least 18700 again. So either the triangle plays out and we move more sideways or we break above for 18800 or higher.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18750
bull case: Bulls see the low today as a retest and market is now free to pump again. The gap to 18655 closing price will probably be closed overnight and then bulls will probably retest 18700 or higher next.
Invalidation is below 18470.
bear case: Bears surprised the bulls with 2 strong legs down today. The breakout above 18720 looked decent and trapped many bulls buying high in a trading range. Bears could not touch last week’s closing price 18531, which is a sign of weakness. They closed below the daily and the 1h ema, which strengthens their case but given that it’s a clear trading range, not many bears want to sell below 18600.
Invalidation is above 18750.
short term: Up for 18700 and maybe higher. Play the range until clear breakout
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling the double top bar 28 + 54 one tick below bar 54. Was good for 160 points. My room caught a 100+ banger to the downside.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.