5/23/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
DECK
A comment. Sidelines ATM.
- mgmt not providing FY guide is a problem in this environment because (serious) investors that don't own this thing will need to do more work to own it, those who own it might be forced to cut exposure (even if it's down here) and there's a general "what does mgmt know that we don't" overhang until, essentially, next quarter, maybe
- trump lobbing in a pre-market EU tariff threat doesn't help the tape and those that r already going low bid like this and that are discretionary. remember... economy is not "improving"... discretionary gets cut first (consider TGT's recent report... more discretionary vs. say WMT) and a brand that's not kicking butt (like
ONON) will get cut/ resized in portfolios and weightings.
- is the stock objectively a buy here in the low $100s. yes.
- but now if the mkt rolls over, will this thing see low 90s or even attempt to fill the somewhat-recent oct 2023 gap in the low 80s? also I'd give that a 50-ish probability. and it's at that point, it's almost a no-brainer. so i'd not necessarily "wait" for that moment, but i'm not going to neck out here on a discretionary name that just reported disappointing results as the mkt has rallied and might give some back (and this would be a weak link/ low bid name)
- i'd look to bit in the low 90s and stack bags more aggressively w/ a 8-handle. otherwise i just let it pass. i like my concentrated exposure here.
OBTC, 
GAMB, 
NXT, tsm and about 30% cash (and i have a reasonable amt of quantum shorts w longer dated expiry but not really worth mentioning in this post).
hope everyone has a nice long weekend. i guess this is "liberation" (from your money) round deux.
V
DECKA comment. Sidelines ATM.
- mgmt not providing FY guide is a problem in this environment because (serious) investors that don't own this thing will need to do more work to own it, those who own it might be forced to cut exposure (even if it's down here) and there's a general "what does mgmt know that we don't" overhang until, essentially, next quarter, maybe
- trump lobbing in a pre-market EU tariff threat doesn't help the tape and those that r already going low bid like this and that are discretionary. remember... economy is not "improving"... discretionary gets cut first (consider TGT's recent report... more discretionary vs. say WMT) and a brand that's not kicking butt (like
ONON) will get cut/ resized in portfolios and weightings.- is the stock objectively a buy here in the low $100s. yes.
- but now if the mkt rolls over, will this thing see low 90s or even attempt to fill the somewhat-recent oct 2023 gap in the low 80s? also I'd give that a 50-ish probability. and it's at that point, it's almost a no-brainer. so i'd not necessarily "wait" for that moment, but i'm not going to neck out here on a discretionary name that just reported disappointing results as the mkt has rallied and might give some back (and this would be a weak link/ low bid name)
- i'd look to bit in the low 90s and stack bags more aggressively w/ a 8-handle. otherwise i just let it pass. i like my concentrated exposure here.
OBTC, GAMB, NXT, tsm and about 30% cash (and i have a reasonable amt of quantum shorts w longer dated expiry but not really worth mentioning in this post).hope everyone has a nice long weekend. i guess this is "liberation" (from your money) round deux.
V
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.