Its Been A Long Time Hasn't It?

I see a possible horrible set up coming. But also an incredibly easy set up for the current US Administration to revert policy at a certain level.

I start to wonder if they are actually not looking at the market like they said. Its not like you need to look at the market for more than 5 minutes a day after doing a SINGLE in depth analysis on a longer time frame.

We will se what happens.

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Market Update: Indices Nearing Target, Apple Oversold

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Structure Holds, Administration Adjusts, April 2nd Countdown

Technically, not much has changed — we’re still pushing into support, and the market pulled back sufficiently two weeks ago, though a slightly deeper drop would’ve set up a cleaner base. The buy-up two Fridays ago wasn’t ideal, but it didn’t derail anything. The key shift comes from the administration, which appears to be easing up on tariffs — a smart move that gives the market room to breathe and provides political space to act. This sets up a strong narrative heading into April 2nd, when we expect a formal policy announcement. Indices are sitting around 1% from support, Apple isn’t flashing a buy signal (which is good), and the buildup suggests a potential breakout if the policy confirms. The administration likely fumbled earlier but seems to have corrected course in time, setting things up well for both the market and their broader agenda.

20 hours ago

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So, long story short, NASDAQ has already started under its sell signal, and now I’m watching for confluence between the NASDAQ, S&P, and Dow—same setup we saw on the way up, just in reverse.

Back in November 2023, NASDAQ came above its levels on the 23rd.
Then the S&P followed on December 4th,
And finally, the Dow on December 11th.

Now, I’m looking for that same sequence flipped—watching for the S&P and Dow to start the week under their key thresholds:
Dow: Week start under $40,700
S&P: Week start under $5,400
If that happens, I think we could easily see another 5–10% drop from there.

As for NVIDIA, I’m targeting around $50–$60, preferably closer to $50–$55, and planning to add heavily if we get there. I think this whole setup is part of a manufactured drop—because the rates need to come down so the government can refinance the debt. And the only real way to do that is to wreck the economy enough to justify rate cuts. That means slowed spending, business failures, unemployment, and all the bad stuff that forces the Fed’s hand. I don’t think it’s likely they go all-in on that plan, but that’s the backdrop.

If they can roll current 5% rates into 3–3.5% for the long term, that’s $170–$200 billion a year in savings, which is a major incentive. That seems to be part of the logic behind the Mar-a-Lago Accords or whatever version of the America 2025 plan they're floating.

But personally—I don’t think any of this actually happens.
It’s a long shot. Politically, none of this flies.

State revenues are already starting to fall, and state-level deficits are at all-time highs, which adds even more pressure. All of this makes the scenario really unlikely.

So I expect a bounce. Not because things are good, but because things are going to look bad, and when they do, everyone politically flips and we go back into hyperinflation.

Most of the big money is sitting on cash—Berkshire Hathaway alone has over $300 billion on hand. No one’s in a rush to buy the top. There's a much bigger incentive for everything to drop first.

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