Rinse and repeat?

Updated

Price swings and volume look very similar to August 2021 IMO. If it follows a similar trend we will have a few days down to the 50 day EMA or a 2.3% drop but then back to the top for a week or so before a bigger fall (4%) down starting mid to end of Aug. Sometime in Sept we will see a burst back up for election time and then choppy up and down before what could be a 9 month bearish down trend to the 32.8k area until Sept 2025. Good luck

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Now down to 39.1k area IMO or the 50 day EMA. Good luck

Trade closed manually

Updating this idea in a new publication...timing and pullbacks have changed IMO

Trade active

Looks like this is going according to plan after all...

Prediction: down to 39.1k area on Friday with a few day rise back up to 39.5 with a large drop down to 38.3k, forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern and up until election time IMO. It may even rise up to 40.5k area by then.

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I now think the rise is over and no inverted head and shoulders. Down to 38.3k over the next few weeks IMO. Going to observe with little to no updates. Good luck.

Comment

The market appears to be on an upward trajectory now, which is likely to continue until signs of exhaustion become evident. This optimism can be attributed to favorable Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, which are fueling anticipation of a potential rate cut.

Barring any negative employment data tomorrow, the current trend could persist for approximately 2-3 weeks IMO. During this period, we can expect the market to grind upwards steadily.

Following the uptrend, there is an expectation of a sharp downturn. The exact timing and triggers for this reversal are not clear at present to me. Good luck!

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Update:

As we look at the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), there's an anticipation that it could continue its rally until exhaustion, predicted around mid-September. It's likely, however, to be followed by a sharp correction, before it potentially rises again into mid-October.

Post that, the future becomes murkier with the potential for a significant market correction or even a crash not being off the table. In light of recent trends, it wouldn't be surprising to see such a downturn.

Could another surge upwards be the alternative? That largely depends on the strength of our economy – a topic currently under some scrutiny. With the U.S. national debt hitting the 35 trillion mark, one may facetiously question, "Is that really significant?" Yet, the weight of this debt is no small matter.

Historically, since World War I, the U.S. government has increased or revised the debt ceiling 78 times to prevent defaulting. This speaks to a pattern of increasing debt as a temporary solution to deeper financial challenges. Arguably, this reflects a culture of greed and short-term solutions which, many believe, will eventually have its repercussions on the economy.

In conclusion, while a new upward wave isn't impossible, it's critical to consider whether our claimed economic strength stands firm against the towering debt and historical tendencies of fiscal management. Good luck!

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DJI Market Projection

Summary
- Pullback Prediction: It is anticipated that the DJI may retract to approximately 39.4k.
- Upward Drive: Following the pullback, an upward trend could persist for around 30 days, leading to a state of exhaustion.
- Potential Unraveling: Post-exhaustion, there's a projection of market unraveling towards the year's end.

Projected Decline
- Magnitude: An estimated 25% drop in the DJI is projected during this period.
- Timing: The significant decline is not expected until post-election.

Market Response to Election
- Presidential Impact: Regardless of the election outcome, market dissatisfaction is expected, potentially triggering a substantial downturn.
- Market Reset: A large drop could serve as a reset for the markets, presenting opportunities for bargains.

Perspective & Disclaimer
- This analysis is speculative and based on personal viewpoints.
- Market predictions are not certain; outcomes may vary from forecasts.
- The rationale is grounded in what appears to be common sense, but market behavior can be unpredictable.

Comment

update:

Trade closed manually

switching back permanently to my 5 day idea...zooming out is essential here to see what is going on and even the 1day doesn't show it IMO. take care

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