Is Dow Jones about to go down?
My first idea on DJI was a bit simple but here is another idea with more details explaining why it might go down.
Entry (Ideal): 25870
Target 1: 22380
Target 2: 21300 (not shown on the chart)
Target 3: 21000
Time: Target 3 will be around early November this year
Stop loss: Above the resistance arcs.
Arguments:
- 3 different Gann Squares says the same: All time high was in January this year. You find the start points on the lower pivot points.
- Global Fibonacci level (2.618) gives the same All time high. Look at my earlier idea for more explanations.
- The acending trend had a total length of 1.618 (0-3 is the length a and 3-5 is the length b (Golden ratio)).
- Elliott Wave Theory fits in: 5. Wave should be completed and we might be in the corrective trend currently.
Forecast:
- Bit hard to say but a possible scenario is that a Bearish Gartley Pattern would appear. This gives us a local 0.786 fibonacci level next. This is also the Entry level. According to EW theory and the corrective trend this will be the wave B. I think it is always hard to do the counting though.
- Further it will keep on going downwards and according to Gann Square (The way I use it) it will turn over at the next arc. I use Fibonacci locally to find the targets. In this case it is 0.5 level that fits best (Target 3). Alternatively 1.618 level from 5 - A leg (Target 2). A safer approach would be 0.382 level because of the earlier behaviour (Target 1).
Entry (Ideal): 25870
Target 1: 22380
Target 2: 21300 (not shown on the chart)
Target 3: 21000
Time: Target 3 will be around early November this year
Stop loss: Above the resistance arcs.
Arguments:
- 3 different Gann Squares says the same: All time high was in January this year. You find the start points on the lower pivot points.
- Global Fibonacci level (2.618) gives the same All time high. Look at my earlier idea for more explanations.
- The acending trend had a total length of 1.618 (0-3 is the length a and 3-5 is the length b (Golden ratio)).
- Elliott Wave Theory fits in: 5. Wave should be completed and we might be in the corrective trend currently.
Forecast:
- Bit hard to say but a possible scenario is that a Bearish Gartley Pattern would appear. This gives us a local 0.786 fibonacci level next. This is also the Entry level. According to EW theory and the corrective trend this will be the wave B. I think it is always hard to do the counting though.
- Further it will keep on going downwards and according to Gann Square (The way I use it) it will turn over at the next arc. I use Fibonacci locally to find the targets. In this case it is 0.5 level that fits best (Target 3). Alternatively 1.618 level from 5 - A leg (Target 2). A safer approach would be 0.382 level because of the earlier behaviour (Target 1).
Note
A closer look:Note
A comparison of the BTC bubble last christmas:We see that the same Gartley Pattern almost manage to complete, but "unfortunately" the bearish rectangle pattern was the final trigger in that case. It was a only 3,5% away from the entry (!). In other words it is important to beware of other possible entries.
Note
And with the BTC bubble in mind I made the same setup on Dow Jones:Note
Seems like a break out on the small wedge:Note
After a small pullback it is clearly diving again after second attempt:Note
Note
Pullback and testing the bottom line on the wedge + the upper line on the rectangle:Note
Some weeks later: Note
Some weeks later: Afraid of War trade, US arresting Meng, National debt is increasing, Withdrawal due to Christmas shopping?Note
Trade war**Note
Possible Scenario?Note
First Target hit: 13%The stop loss I picked was slightly too low, but it is cool to show how accurate Gann is.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.