BLACK MONDAY LOOMS (AGAIN) 😲👊
Updated
I can't find a spot of good news over this weekend - or one that would make a sound difference to economies (on a longer term basis). I'm expecting (not predicting) panic on Monday/Tuesday. The markets are NOT economies. They represent confidence in economies - similar to bond markets.
Seriously - it's almost all bad news out there - and the algos will be expected to pick all this up and make 'decisions':
I also expect even higher volatility - which is what all sound traders lurve!! But gamblers also like volatility - so to gamblers I say, "Expect to lose more money than you make!"
Disclaimers: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. Estimates of probability in one direction leaves a residual probability in the opposite direction. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Seriously - it's almost all bad news out there - and the algos will be expected to pick all this up and make 'decisions':
- Wall Street collapsed ~700 pts on the weekend (unheard of before). Then a slight rebellion north by 125pts.
- Cases surpass 105,000 worldwide; deaths exceed 3,500. The number of deaths from the coronavirus outside China edged toward 500, pushing governments and airlines to curtail travel to and from heavily affected areas.
- China death toll rises to 3,097.
- Italy curbs travel for northern region around Milan as death toll climbs by 33 overnight to 233. 16 million people locked down!
- CPAC attendee was infected; Trump had no contact. Trump said he intends to continue holding large campaign
- U.S. tests fewer than 6,000 samples.
- London Heathrow Baggage Handlers Test Positive for Virus
- The International Air Transport Association warned this week that carriers may lose $113 billion in sales this year, almost four times more than its estimate of the epidemic’s impact from just two weeks earlier.
- Saudi Arabia plans to increase oil output next month to well above 10 million barrels a day, as the kingdom responds to the collapse of its OPEC+ alliance with Russia. Commodities traders see this as all out 'price-war' in the face of a simultaneous supply-and-demand shock.(The virus had caused reduced demand for oil and price to fall. There was some talk about limiting production/supply of oil in response. Now the opposite seems to be happening).
- US walking into a recession at 'peak performance' - jobs report.
I also expect even higher volatility - which is what all sound traders lurve!! But gamblers also like volatility - so to gamblers I say, "Expect to lose more money than you make!"
Disclaimers: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. Estimates of probability in one direction leaves a residual probability in the opposite direction. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Note
Weekend Wall Street just fell to minus 746 points from Friday close at 18:00 GMT 2020-03-08.Note
Serious trouble at open of the market! Note
The DJI gapped down 600 pts on weekend opening of the market. screencast.com/t/pAfVVrDE
FED balance sheet 42% of GDP @ 2020-01-26. Does money have value anymore? [Different perspective on the virus youtu.be/NjTdvALChwk ]
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