Mr. Dow – surfin’ down, but… (2)
Hello everyone,
I decided to have a closer look the chart, because the movements of the dow are very interesting now. I think that we are in wave 4 (purple in brackets), as mentioned in my last analysis, but there is another possibility to think of: it is possible that we are in a so-called expanding diagonal. If so, there is a chance for new highs!
BUT: so or so, I think that the next movements will be the same. A good chance to trade even though we are not sure about the superordinate structure at the moment.
Scenario 1 – red line, chance 60%
Superordinate: the dow has completed wave 3 (purple in brackets) at 26.616 and now we are in wave 4 (purple in brackets). Wave A (cyan) and B (cyan) are already completed, so we are in wave C (cyan) of 4 (purple in brackets).
Let’s have a closer look at the structure of wave C of 4…
Wave a of C of 4 looks completed at 24.122 to me, so we are in wave b (purple in square brackets). Waves b are always abc-patterns in substructure. The last uptrend was wave a of b. And NOW we will see most likely wave b of b of C of 4, to be precise.
In short: down (wave b), up wave c of b of C of 4, and finally down wave c of C of 4.
Scenario 2 – green line, chance 40%
The fist movements are the same as described under scenario 2 (grey lines, a and b subordinate in this scenario are 1 and 2, beige)! The question is: is there a chance for an expanding diagonal? If so, the dow is building a five-wave-structure up to complete wave 3 (purple in brackets) much higher, as you can see in the chart above.
We have to decide later on, if scenario 1 or 2 is pushing through. In short term I see a short and directly after that a long to trade profitable.
Please leave a comment or a message if you have any questions or other ideas!
Take care,
tgo
I decided to have a closer look the chart, because the movements of the dow are very interesting now. I think that we are in wave 4 (purple in brackets), as mentioned in my last analysis, but there is another possibility to think of: it is possible that we are in a so-called expanding diagonal. If so, there is a chance for new highs!
BUT: so or so, I think that the next movements will be the same. A good chance to trade even though we are not sure about the superordinate structure at the moment.
Scenario 1 – red line, chance 60%
Superordinate: the dow has completed wave 3 (purple in brackets) at 26.616 and now we are in wave 4 (purple in brackets). Wave A (cyan) and B (cyan) are already completed, so we are in wave C (cyan) of 4 (purple in brackets).
Let’s have a closer look at the structure of wave C of 4…
Wave a of C of 4 looks completed at 24.122 to me, so we are in wave b (purple in square brackets). Waves b are always abc-patterns in substructure. The last uptrend was wave a of b. And NOW we will see most likely wave b of b of C of 4, to be precise.
In short: down (wave b), up wave c of b of C of 4, and finally down wave c of C of 4.
Scenario 2 – green line, chance 40%
The fist movements are the same as described under scenario 2 (grey lines, a and b subordinate in this scenario are 1 and 2, beige)! The question is: is there a chance for an expanding diagonal? If so, the dow is building a five-wave-structure up to complete wave 3 (purple in brackets) much higher, as you can see in the chart above.
We have to decide later on, if scenario 1 or 2 is pushing through. In short term I see a short and directly after that a long to trade profitable.
Please leave a comment or a message if you have any questions or other ideas!
Take care,
tgo
HK-Capital-Management
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