US 30 Bear Trend: Megaphone Tar Double Bottom Crash Landing Site
Updated
US Equities in downtrend off ATH from July. Price action strongly mimics last year's selloff behavior. Pull chart right to see the 2018 Megaphone. Targets in chart are determined by TL defined by these Megaphones. Price labels are estimates and actual prices of course will vary; past performance is no guarantee of future results!
2019 Megaphone is Bigger and the subsequent Great Drop will be deeper. Currently trades near top of retracement in 'h' pattern which Time Cycles (green ribbon) suggest should complete on or about 14 August, coinciding with Full Moon on 15 August. We got a 62% retrace in NQ and ~50% in Dow. Expect to rollover at or near 26500, has traded to 26400 so far, maybe already done; or might have one push left, exact price is chance.
Near-term bottom of the 'h' right leg should end up at or around 24750 +/- 80 pips on or about Monday, 26 August by Time Cycle, coinciding closely with New Moon on August 30, when price should rally a final time. Exact price is chance. Expect a monster relief rally there until 14-17 September, coinciding with Full Moon on 14 Sep, to around 25800 +/- 200 pips; these rallies carry index above the 'h' hump, should get to the upper TL on megaphone. Again, exact price is due entirely to chance. Apres ca; la deluge.
The Big Sell may commence on or about 17 September (Constitution Day, and the 167th anniversary of the Antietam battle, AKA Sharpsburg, after the Full Moon.
history.com/topics/american-civil-war/battle-of-antietam
Selling may be expected to last for six weeks in an unrelenting downdraft, culminating in a panic crash to a lower low than 24 Dec, and forming a giant annual 'h' terminating on or about Tuesday, 29 October, coinciding with the New Moon on Monday, 28 October.
NB: IMO it is not coincidental that 28/29 October 1929 were also on a Monday and Tuesday; eerily the waning Moon cycle ended on 30 October 1929, with New Moon on 31st.
calendar-12.com/moon_calendar/1929/october
"Black Magic!" you say; but biologically, these patterns are borne out time and again by history; the madness of crowds and human mood is definitely influenced by Circadian Rythym, and closely tied to Lunar Phasing. Gravity waves have been detected on the floor of the NYSE, LOL!
The negative impulse should form a true Elliott wave 5-wave impulsive pattern with three major selling waves and two weak countertrend waves. I did not show these in chart for clarity, as we approach the event future ideas I will publish these waves as they unfold.
As always, this is just another addle-pated, crackpot idea and clearly does not constitute any sort of investment advice.
That being said; I must observe I accurately predicted the May ABC correction and subsequent ATH, see published links below.
We are currently in Distribution Phase of the final leg of a monster bull market, so please: Trade at your own risk; GLTA!
2019 Megaphone is Bigger and the subsequent Great Drop will be deeper. Currently trades near top of retracement in 'h' pattern which Time Cycles (green ribbon) suggest should complete on or about 14 August, coinciding with Full Moon on 15 August. We got a 62% retrace in NQ and ~50% in Dow. Expect to rollover at or near 26500, has traded to 26400 so far, maybe already done; or might have one push left, exact price is chance.
Near-term bottom of the 'h' right leg should end up at or around 24750 +/- 80 pips on or about Monday, 26 August by Time Cycle, coinciding closely with New Moon on August 30, when price should rally a final time. Exact price is chance. Expect a monster relief rally there until 14-17 September, coinciding with Full Moon on 14 Sep, to around 25800 +/- 200 pips; these rallies carry index above the 'h' hump, should get to the upper TL on megaphone. Again, exact price is due entirely to chance. Apres ca; la deluge.
The Big Sell may commence on or about 17 September (Constitution Day, and the 167th anniversary of the Antietam battle, AKA Sharpsburg, after the Full Moon.
history.com/topics/american-civil-war/battle-of-antietam
Selling may be expected to last for six weeks in an unrelenting downdraft, culminating in a panic crash to a lower low than 24 Dec, and forming a giant annual 'h' terminating on or about Tuesday, 29 October, coinciding with the New Moon on Monday, 28 October.
NB: IMO it is not coincidental that 28/29 October 1929 were also on a Monday and Tuesday; eerily the waning Moon cycle ended on 30 October 1929, with New Moon on 31st.
calendar-12.com/moon_calendar/1929/october
"Black Magic!" you say; but biologically, these patterns are borne out time and again by history; the madness of crowds and human mood is definitely influenced by Circadian Rythym, and closely tied to Lunar Phasing. Gravity waves have been detected on the floor of the NYSE, LOL!
The negative impulse should form a true Elliott wave 5-wave impulsive pattern with three major selling waves and two weak countertrend waves. I did not show these in chart for clarity, as we approach the event future ideas I will publish these waves as they unfold.
As always, this is just another addle-pated, crackpot idea and clearly does not constitute any sort of investment advice.
That being said; I must observe I accurately predicted the May ABC correction and subsequent ATH, see published links below.
We are currently in Distribution Phase of the final leg of a monster bull market, so please: Trade at your own risk; GLTA!
Trade active
More global tension news sparked modest selloff again. Short-term oversold condition; expect gap to close by Weds. Got support at 260, if it holds expect lift Tues.Note
Closed partial position at 260. Shorted Friday weekly 257s against balance on Oct 265s. Holding.Note
Look back at 18/19 October 2018. Small notch uptick on side of cliff; a pause in the freefall. Looks like we are at the same inflection point; magnitude and form of the impulse is virtually identical. Lift for a day then sell to beat Hell.Trade active
Chart filling in. Doubled down on shorts into monster rally. Time cycle indicates topping on 14th.Note
SPX touched 0.618 Fibo in early trade today. Might be one more leg in the rally.Trade active
Here we go again; a day sooner than I expected! T-bill inversion. The fun never ends!Trade active
Yeah this is nuts... Closed 15/30 QQQ 30 Sep 186s at<183; closed 10/25 DIA Oct 265s at Dow -725; closed 15/30 SPY Sep 30 286s with Sand P -82, as it seemed like oversold IMO. We are getting a short-covering bounce now, should close above the LOTD. I did short OTM weeklies near the LOTD against the remaining 45 contracts to hedge in event of Thurs/Fri bounce; diagonal put spreads. Probably gonna cost me to cover the damned things but it's win-win.The wife sold her QQQ Sep 188s for a paltry 50% gain, she said; "I want my money back now!!"
Setup is on target for a Monday deep selloff. If we get a bounce, add in more puts. Targets: DIA 247 QQQ 169 SPY 277, give or take a little.
Trade closed manually
Put prices got so stupid high I was obliged to take the money and run. Might consolidate for a few days before the next down leg. Take what the market gives you!Trade active
Re-entered on Thurs weak rally at lower strikes, more bear spreads with less capital at risk, now trading the 30 Aug SPY, Sep QQQ and Oct DIA 260s, shorted weeklies expiring Friday. More bearishness almost certainly in store soon.Trade closed: stop reached
Stopped out of rolled positions on what looks to be a pivot forming. Could get a pretty strong rally out of the hole on waning gibbous after today's Full Moon. DIA touched 254, QQQ dipped under 182, SPY bounced off 282.4, all probly at near-term support for a counter-trend rally. Might only bull for a day, or could boost for a few days. Expect more bearishness before EOM.
Note
Doji is a Green Hammer spike. Look back at 25 October, 10 Dec, 25/28 May for similar patterns. After a big swoon, sellers sideline waiting for better prices to sell onto. Expect 2-3 days rally before the next big break. Target remains DIA 247.Trade active
Re-entered shorts on major indexes on relief rally. Trend is still down.Note
Closed Friday resting exactly at the down TL formed by peaks at 31 Jul, 13 Aug. Can certainly get higher but IMO R/R favors sell side here. Will add to shorts and hold if it lifts to former support > new resistance between 2912-2926 SPX, 26080-26280 Dow. NQ has been worth shorting every instance it ventures over 8K.Trade closed: stop reached
Options fell out of the money so stopped out. IMO a right shoulder is forming. Could get above 295 SPY and 265 DIA. Darn that Donald! It will tank but likely higher first.Trade active
Cautiously re-entered a few small hedged shorts on what looks to be a thin volume overbought rally with divergence in RSI. RUT is not gaining like other majors, weakness in small caps usually means broader weakness soon. Shorting IWM by put; in October 150's, hedged against weekly 147s.Trade active
Added to shorts and pushed the weeklies farther OTM' draw your attention to 22 May Harami; another red shooting star following a blowoff exhaustion gap; expect gap down to fill the gap up soon.Trade active
In spite of bullishness I added to my shorts, this has all the hallmarks of a washout blowoff top and is identical in magnitude and appearance to Monday's chart, ffs!Trade active
Added a few more shorts on gap up, the rejection was fierce and surprising. Now holding >100 ITM October puts. It's a big bet; GLTA!PS On a whimsical journey I also bought 20 Oct 12 calls on TECS, 3x inverse ETF, cheap fun for $1.
Trade closed manually
I'm done with this madness. Closed all out for a push and took the money out. Back to my day job. IMO everyone is so bearish the damned thing will probably bull back to ATH now on anticipation of the Sep meeting rate cut. Chinese tariffs only sold for a half an hour. GLTA.
Note
Tentatively creeping back into the asylum, has followed this path pretty closely. Further upside surprise is still possible so I wouldn't get too deep into shorts; entered a few hedged bear spreads and bought half as many bull spreads for insurance.Note
See my latest on forming Cup & Handle. I expect a double top with marginal new ATH later this month, likely coincident with the time cycle sine wave ending on or about 16-18 September, which also coincides with FOMC on 18 Sep.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.