An Educational Journey into Technical Analysis with Dogecoin/USD
In this tutorial, we'll dive deep into the art of technical analysis using the Dogecoin USD chart as our canvas. You'll discover how to blend Fibonacci tools, Elliott Wave Theory, and the Wyckoff Method to forecast potential market movements. Whether you're new to trading or looking to refine your analytical skills, this guide will provide you with practical insights into identifying entry and exit points, understanding market phases, and preparing for future trends. Let's embark on this educational journey together to enhance your trading strategy toolkit.
When in doubt, Zoom Out!
Below I was looking at Arguments for a Significant Short Position Before the Continuation of the Bullish Trend and the Pursuit of New All-Time Highs
Now that we've examined the macro perspective, let's Zoom In to the current action:
Zooming in on the 4-hour Chart: I've drawn another Fibonacci retracement just for wave B, colored in turquoise blue. Notably, the 1.272 Fibonacci extension aligns with our macro 0.382 Fibonacci target, now colored yellow for clarity.
Speculations for Future Moves:
After hitting our target, I'll analyze again and publish a new idea with plans for breaking the ATH and targets for the anticipated bull market.
Enough for now, as it's getting late. Give me a follow, share if you liked this analysis, and stay tuned for updates.
When in doubt, Zoom Out!
Below I was looking at Arguments for a Significant Short Position Before the Continuation of the Bullish Trend and the Pursuit of New All-Time Highs
- Elliott Waves: From the bear market bottom at 4.5 cents, we started wave 1 and concluded with wave 5 at the current top. Following five waves, we expect an ABC correction. Waves A and B have been completed, and we are now in wave C.
- Fibonacci 1: Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension - From the all-time high (ATH) to the recent bear market bottom, then to the current 48-cent top. The 0.382 Fibonacci level suggests a target of 0.2130 for the upcoming drop, which I believe is necessary for liquidity ahead of the next upward movement.
- Fibonacci 2: Regular Fibonacci Retracement - From the bottom of wave 4 to the top of wave 5, the 0.618 level is at 0.235 cents. I've marked a green box between these two targets.
See in the image below how Backtesting this strategy on the two previous cycles shows that before breaking ATHs, Dogecoin always hit this 0.382 Fib level!I use these 2 Fibonacci targets to place the green box between them and where I expect price to go in the newxt couple of weeks.
- Additional Observation: The green line below the 0.618 Fib retracement and above the 0.382 trend-based Fibonacci extension also marks a retest of the wave 3 high at 0.23 cents.
Now that we've examined the macro perspective, let's Zoom In to the current action:
- Wyckoff Schematic: Check my previously published idea on Bitcoin, linked here, where Bitcoin is in a Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1. Dogecoin seems to follow with Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #2. I've added vertical lines for phase separation, a red resistance box, and a green support box.
- Link to Richard D. Wyckoff, his Method and Story https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/wyckoff-method/ .
- ABC Pattern: Wave A from top to bottom is exactly 0.222 cents or -45.81%, suggesting wave C should be of similar magnitude. Wave B measures 0.1724 cents and 65.65% to the upside. Using an arrow tool, the 0.222 cent drop points exactly to the 0.382 Fibonacci target from the trend-based extension we did in the macro analysis, now highlighted in yellow. Link to chart.
Zooming in on the 4-hour Chart: I've drawn another Fibonacci retracement just for wave B, colored in turquoise blue. Notably, the 1.272 Fibonacci extension aligns with our macro 0.382 Fibonacci target, now colored yellow for clarity.
Speculations for Future Moves:
- Fibonacci Circle and bottom timing prediction: Drawn from A to B, this circle in orange might help us predict when we hit the green box target at the bottom. Considering that the A drop measures exactly 12 days and 4Hours I have added another vertical line now marking a timeframe of 5 days from Thursday 30 January to Monday 3 February 2025 This is speculative but worth watching. It includes also a weekend so a CME gap before weekend plus filling the week after could also be in play.
- Wyckoff Phases: According to earlier discussions, we're moving through phases A to E. I've added a vertical line where the Fib circle crosses our 1.272 and 0.382 Fib levels, suggesting we'll enter phase E on January 23, 2025, potentially concluding by February 2, 2025.
- Predictive Arrows: Blue arrows indicate possible future price movements based on current patterns.
After hitting our target, I'll analyze again and publish a new idea with plans for breaking the ATH and targets for the anticipated bull market.
Enough for now, as it's getting late. Give me a follow, share if you liked this analysis, and stay tuned for updates.
Note
Much more clean to see on a monthly chart where you can clearly see the monthly support!
Monthly is ending in 8 days so it all makes sense time wise.
Note
Just a quick note that I am working on some more very valuable updates on this idea! I have made a 50-minute video already, going through some things, looking to see if I can find any bullish arguments. Unfortunately, the audio was horrible because of a mistake on my part. I will have to do it again. Besides, I will also introduce you to one of my most favorite tools that gives users that extra edge and data to improve your overall trading experience and success! You will not want to miss the next video update! Make sure you have followed me or at least this idea to get the update!
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