Detailed Analysis of DOGE/USDT Weekly Chart (Updated)
DOGE/USDT is currently navigating a critical consolidation phase within Wave 4, as per the Elliott Wave framework. Below is a detailed breakdown of its technical structure, including key levels and momentum indicators.
1. Elliott Wave Count
DOGE is in a corrective Wave 4 phase, following a strong impulsive Wave 3, which aligns with the Elliott Wave guidelines:
Wave 1 was the initial impulsive move marking the beginning of the trend.
Wave 2 retraced deeply but respected key Fibonacci retracement levels, establishing a foundation for Wave 3.
Wave 3 was the most extended and powerful wave, as evidenced by a steep rise in price and volume, peaking near $0.523.
Wave 4:
Currently forming a correction, likely a flat or triangle structure.
Typical of Wave 4, the correction is shallow compared to Wave 2, adhering to the guideline of alternation.
Consolidating within the 23.6%–50% Fibonacci retracement levels of Wave 3.
2. Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Wave 4 correction is respecting Fibonacci retracement levels:
23.6% retracement ($0.31736): Currently acting as a key resistance.
38.2% retracement ($0.24403): A strong support zone for potential reversal and Wave 5 initiation.
50% retracement ($0.19734): A critical level of last-resort support; a breakdown here could invalidate the current Elliott Wave structure.
3. Wave 5 Projection
Upon completion of Wave 4, DOGE is expected to begin its final impulsive Wave 5. Probable targets based on Fibonacci extensions:
0.618 extension ($0.89646): Primary target, aligning with typical Wave 5 behavior.
0.786 extension ($1.412): Secondary target, achievable under strong bullish conditions.
1.0 extension ($2.229): A highly optimistic target, representing significant bullish momentum or speculative fervor.
Wave 5 is likely to retest the previous Wave 3 peak ($0.523) before advancing to higher Fibonacci extension levels.
4. Volume Analysis
Volume behavior reflects the consolidative nature of Wave 4:
Volume has declined since the Wave 3 peak, indicating reduced market activity—a common characteristic of corrective waves.
A volume breakout above the recent average will serve as a confirmation of the transition from Wave 4 to Wave 5.
5. MACD Indicator
The MACD histogram remains in the negative zone but shows signs of shrinking, indicating that bearish momentum is weakening.
The MACD lines are approaching a potential bullish crossover:
A crossover above the signal line will confirm the start of bullish momentum for Wave 5.
6. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
The RSI is currently at 56.79, within the neutral-to-bullish zone:
This indicates a lack of extreme momentum but leaves room for further acceleration.
A breakout above 70 during Wave 5 would confirm strong bullish momentum.
7. Key Levels to Watch
Support Levels:
$0.31736 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement): Current resistance; a breakout above this level signals strength.
$0.24403 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement): A strong support level where Wave 4 could end.
$0.19734 (50% Fibonacci retracement): Last-resort support; breaking below this invalidates the wave structure.
Resistance Levels:
$0.523 (Wave 3 peak): The first key resistance to break for Wave 5 confirmation.
$0.89646 (0.618 extension): Primary target for Wave 5.
$1.412 (0.786 extension): Secondary target, indicating extended bullish momentum.
8. Risk and Invalidations
Break Below $0.24403: Suggests deeper retracement toward $0.19734.
Break Below $0.19734: Invalidates the current Elliott Wave structure, signaling potential further downside.
Broader Market Sentiment: DOGE's movement will likely be influenced by the overall cryptocurrency market sentiment, making external factors (e.g., BTC dominance, macroeconomic conditions) crucial to monitor.
9. Confluence Factors for Wave 5 Confirmation
A breakout above $0.31736 with high volume.
A bullish MACD crossover above the signal line.
RSI moving into the 70+ zone, signaling strong upward momentum.
Conclusion
DOGE/USDT is currently consolidating within a Wave 4 corrective phase, hovering around key Fibonacci retracement levels. If the price respects the $0.24403 support and breaks above $0.31736, it is likely to enter Wave 5, targeting $0.89646 (0.618 extension), with stretch targets at $1.412 (0.786 extension). Risk lies in a break below $0.19734, which would invalidate the wave structure.
Let me know if you’d like further analysis or adjustments!
DOGE/USDT is currently navigating a critical consolidation phase within Wave 4, as per the Elliott Wave framework. Below is a detailed breakdown of its technical structure, including key levels and momentum indicators.
1. Elliott Wave Count
DOGE is in a corrective Wave 4 phase, following a strong impulsive Wave 3, which aligns with the Elliott Wave guidelines:
Wave 1 was the initial impulsive move marking the beginning of the trend.
Wave 2 retraced deeply but respected key Fibonacci retracement levels, establishing a foundation for Wave 3.
Wave 3 was the most extended and powerful wave, as evidenced by a steep rise in price and volume, peaking near $0.523.
Wave 4:
Currently forming a correction, likely a flat or triangle structure.
Typical of Wave 4, the correction is shallow compared to Wave 2, adhering to the guideline of alternation.
Consolidating within the 23.6%–50% Fibonacci retracement levels of Wave 3.
2. Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Wave 4 correction is respecting Fibonacci retracement levels:
23.6% retracement ($0.31736): Currently acting as a key resistance.
38.2% retracement ($0.24403): A strong support zone for potential reversal and Wave 5 initiation.
50% retracement ($0.19734): A critical level of last-resort support; a breakdown here could invalidate the current Elliott Wave structure.
3. Wave 5 Projection
Upon completion of Wave 4, DOGE is expected to begin its final impulsive Wave 5. Probable targets based on Fibonacci extensions:
0.618 extension ($0.89646): Primary target, aligning with typical Wave 5 behavior.
0.786 extension ($1.412): Secondary target, achievable under strong bullish conditions.
1.0 extension ($2.229): A highly optimistic target, representing significant bullish momentum or speculative fervor.
Wave 5 is likely to retest the previous Wave 3 peak ($0.523) before advancing to higher Fibonacci extension levels.
4. Volume Analysis
Volume behavior reflects the consolidative nature of Wave 4:
Volume has declined since the Wave 3 peak, indicating reduced market activity—a common characteristic of corrective waves.
A volume breakout above the recent average will serve as a confirmation of the transition from Wave 4 to Wave 5.
5. MACD Indicator
The MACD histogram remains in the negative zone but shows signs of shrinking, indicating that bearish momentum is weakening.
The MACD lines are approaching a potential bullish crossover:
A crossover above the signal line will confirm the start of bullish momentum for Wave 5.
6. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
The RSI is currently at 56.79, within the neutral-to-bullish zone:
This indicates a lack of extreme momentum but leaves room for further acceleration.
A breakout above 70 during Wave 5 would confirm strong bullish momentum.
7. Key Levels to Watch
Support Levels:
$0.31736 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement): Current resistance; a breakout above this level signals strength.
$0.24403 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement): A strong support level where Wave 4 could end.
$0.19734 (50% Fibonacci retracement): Last-resort support; breaking below this invalidates the wave structure.
Resistance Levels:
$0.523 (Wave 3 peak): The first key resistance to break for Wave 5 confirmation.
$0.89646 (0.618 extension): Primary target for Wave 5.
$1.412 (0.786 extension): Secondary target, indicating extended bullish momentum.
8. Risk and Invalidations
Break Below $0.24403: Suggests deeper retracement toward $0.19734.
Break Below $0.19734: Invalidates the current Elliott Wave structure, signaling potential further downside.
Broader Market Sentiment: DOGE's movement will likely be influenced by the overall cryptocurrency market sentiment, making external factors (e.g., BTC dominance, macroeconomic conditions) crucial to monitor.
9. Confluence Factors for Wave 5 Confirmation
A breakout above $0.31736 with high volume.
A bullish MACD crossover above the signal line.
RSI moving into the 70+ zone, signaling strong upward momentum.
Conclusion
DOGE/USDT is currently consolidating within a Wave 4 corrective phase, hovering around key Fibonacci retracement levels. If the price respects the $0.24403 support and breaks above $0.31736, it is likely to enter Wave 5, targeting $0.89646 (0.618 extension), with stretch targets at $1.412 (0.786 extension). Risk lies in a break below $0.19734, which would invalidate the wave structure.
Let me know if you’d like further analysis or adjustments!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.