Polkadot Tealeaf Augur
Updated
Swing trade
This is a loose plan, trend following with some target levels . I now believe it's almost impossible to predict exact movements like I used to try to in some of my older calls based on classical patterns, waves, Wyckoff etc. The mind kind of sees what it wants to. If it works great, but I've had my biases really distort what's actually on the chart too many times now.
I am biased on the long side because of the sector's bullishness overall.
There's also an upcoming Polkadot 2.0 upgrade early 2024 that should move prices.
Polkadot has somewhat underperformed compared to other alts and that gives us a better risk reward ratio and more room for growth.
The pattern playing out looks very similar to what Theta/USDT did recently so this trade could be over rather quickly.
I've been accumulating since Oct Nov under $6 without a trading plan, got blindsided by the retracement that started after Christmas and now moved my stop loss to breakeven.
Here's how I'm trading this going forward:
Strategy / Trading Plan
Looking for entries using the 4 hour, look for a pull back to baseline or below
using half of your position and using an oscillator to time on a lower time frame.
If the direction proves correct start pyramid into pullbacks around the baseline of the Keltner Channel 2,1 ratio or skyscraper in for a more aggressive approach.
Risk Management
The stop loss is just below the recent double bottom (~7.22), adjust to your risk tolerance,
some other places to consider are just below either 7.78 or 8.34. Move stop to break even as soon as it makes sense and adjust a trailing stop loss to taste as the price moves in your favor.
Goodluck and happy trading.
-Hexxi
This is a loose plan, trend following with some target levels . I now believe it's almost impossible to predict exact movements like I used to try to in some of my older calls based on classical patterns, waves, Wyckoff etc. The mind kind of sees what it wants to. If it works great, but I've had my biases really distort what's actually on the chart too many times now.
I am biased on the long side because of the sector's bullishness overall.
There's also an upcoming Polkadot 2.0 upgrade early 2024 that should move prices.
Polkadot has somewhat underperformed compared to other alts and that gives us a better risk reward ratio and more room for growth.
The pattern playing out looks very similar to what Theta/USDT did recently so this trade could be over rather quickly.
I've been accumulating since Oct Nov under $6 without a trading plan, got blindsided by the retracement that started after Christmas and now moved my stop loss to breakeven.
Here's how I'm trading this going forward:
Strategy / Trading Plan
Looking for entries using the 4 hour, look for a pull back to baseline or below
using half of your position and using an oscillator to time on a lower time frame.
If the direction proves correct start pyramid into pullbacks around the baseline of the Keltner Channel 2,1 ratio or skyscraper in for a more aggressive approach.
Risk Management
The stop loss is just below the recent double bottom (~7.22), adjust to your risk tolerance,
some other places to consider are just below either 7.78 or 8.34. Move stop to break even as soon as it makes sense and adjust a trailing stop loss to taste as the price moves in your favor.
Goodluck and happy trading.
-Hexxi
Note
Dot reached a resistance area last night (EST) the scam wick at 3:30am might have taken out any tighter stop losses. Price is starting to breakout, watching it on the 1hr / 4hr charts for a possible pullback to add to position or ride any strong momentum. Looking for an entry on either of those 2 conditions is to minimize risk as the you want the price to go your way immediately.Note
stopped out on that big dump, re-entry @ 9.60. monitoring new range or expansion formingNote
It's been slow this weekend, some consolidation around ~10.50 breaking down into 10.25 range now.Looking for a reversal of trend around these levels for an aggressive long entry,
9.99 - 10.16
9.62 - 9.86
maybe below these areas looking for liquidation zones and stop losses
A later entry with confirmation break of resistance level of 11.
Note
Not liking this Divergence I'm seeing on the 4 hour. That with the failed breakout above 11 I'm looking to close orders from 9.62-10 areas
depending on how price reacts to 10.80-10.90 resistance area
Longer term 50% position is still on, re-evaluating target take profit
Trade closed: target reached
First target was finally hit. So that's where I get into trouble, micro managing the trade on lower timeframes.
Last update's divergence call on the 4 hour was right as price did get rejected around 10.80-10.90 (for about 4 hours), but it was another opportunity to add onto position instead of taking profit. I've been learning from Tom Hougaard one of the things you need to do to truly succeed as a trader is press your winners instead of trimming them.
2nd target is still valid for me on reviewing, however there looks like there is a risk of a longer correction as the price is currently is testing the 89MA.
Here's all the levels I'm looking at for another entry for the 15.43 target. I've simplified the fib retracements to only using the 50% as that's where most of the major swing points and bounces occur from what I've been seeing.
To keep it even simpler you can buy every time the price touches the 89MA or the 200 MA with a stop a distance below it.
Well that's all for this idea, I won't be updating it any further as I won't be managing my own trade that closely. Execution is most of the trade and looking back on what I did during this swing trade I need to just leave it alone.
Good luck on your trades, hope you got something useful from this strategy and my mistakes.
-Hexxi
Note
youtube.com/shorts/wIloutp9VO8Been listening to Jason Shapiro for a bit and I think his piece of advice applies to DOT.
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