Important Monthly Close

Many market strategists believe that the Dow Jones Utilities Avg. is the best representation of market health because of it's weight in oil, industrials, and consumer demand, and some even say that it actually leads the other indices. Either way, it clearly is not as healthy as the hyperinflated tech stocks right now, and the monthly close is teetering right on the 20 month SMA. If it breaks below it again it could spell trouble for the market, but it's very possible that it's testing it after reentry, and will then continue to bounce sideways or maybe even higher. Long term (2021-2023) I strongly believe that the market will continue to decline and (my guess) reach the 0.382 fib, which is about the top of the 02-08 bull market cycle. It might not, but it also could go lower, as the 2002 recession retraced completely and about 80% during the GFC. Only time will tell, but tomorrow's close should give us more insight to the direction it'll take over the coming months.
Trend Analysis

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