2024/11/27
Another 48h - Bears Take Over Terrain Around Annual Highs In DXY
“from the annual low in 2024 to a new annual high in 2024, above 2023!
what now? back to the big w trend reversal formation from the summer?”
The stock markets in the USA are in a relief rally, as I like to say.
Because the relief that the US elections took place without complications - and that the USA is again civilized, at least in the US mass media, dealing with Trump Back in Office 2025, ensures that the price action on Wall Street is precisely out of relief (if, you ask me) - rising and rising
DJIA & 
SP500 & 
NDX rising and rising. ”Bank of America CEO takes optimistic view of economy in Trump 2.0 era”, which you can read in the NZZ (Leading Swiss Daily Liberal Newspaper). I am also pretty optimistic - can except, that he will be back in Office 2025. While the Fed is supporting the banking industry with its intended reduction in the reverse repo rate (interest rates for commercial banks that park cash with the Fed). While the USA currently seems to be growing out of the self-organized US stagflation, from the US democrats: US growth is once again greater than US inflation. It remains to be seen whether the cheaper money will flow into the US stock market? And/Or will it be parked at a fixed rate? Yes, it may even be lent out to private individuals and companies with interest? In any case, it's a signal! What kind? There will be no banking crisis! At least the FED is doing everything it can - which is why I formulated a long 4XSetUp for 
UBSG already a few times this year. Admittedly boring, compared to the big US banks, like i.e. 
JPM or 
GS 
C and/or even 
BAC , in terms of the ups and downs of price action. But safer - as far as the price action crashes downwards. Anyway, what I'm getting at today is the fact that yesterday the volume of this reverse repo fell to its lowest level since April 2021 - so there isn't much demand from banks. Why? SP500 and/or DJIA closed yesterday at the highest closing price in US stock market history - as the US economy appears to be emerging from US stagflation! But the P/E ratio is a classic measure of a stock's value indicating how many years of profits (at the current earnings rate) it takes to recoup an investment in the stock. The current S&P500 10-year P/E Ratio is 36.5. This is 79.2% above the modern-era market average of 20.4, putting the current P/E 2.0 standard deviations above the modern-era average. And this suggests that the market is Strongly Overvalued. So, let's wait for the coming US unemployment rate next week - and then we will how the price action reacts.- Will We Fall Back In The W Trend Reversal Formation?
- Will We Defeat The Old Annual High Of 2024?
- Are We Heading To Annual Highs Of 2023?
DXY - and which could be answered with no, yes, yes, in the last week. Because in the first two trading days the price action had more or less fallen back to the level of the previous annual high of 2024 by the middle of the week, after the price action rose up, during the last week before. Since Wednesday, the DXY rose above the annual high of 2023 for the first time into the weekend - at least on Friday.
“In my view, philanthropy goes against the grain; therefore it generates a lot of hypocrisy and many paradoxes. Here are some examples: Philanthropy is supposed to be devoted to the benefit of others, but philanthropists are primarily concerned with their own benefit; philanthropy is supposed to help people, yet it often makes people dependent and turns them into objects of charity; applicants tell foundations what they want to hear, then proceed to do what the applicant wants to do.”
George Soros
- Who Will Takin` Over The Terrain Between The Annual Highs?
DXY closed with 107.490 points last weekend. Because a price action above would give the US bulls confirmation that the rally from the annual low in 2024 to more or less new annual highs in 2024 is continuing. While a price action below this should please the US bears again. And we must have to argue that all the price action of the last few days, the last few weeks, since the end of September 2024, is in danger of running out of steam. And we would have to assume a lower DXY .107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual Year High 2023
106.517 : 2024/04/16 - Annual Year High 2024
106.490 : 2024/05/01 - 1st False Breakout To New High
106,130 : 2024/06/26 - 2nd False Breakout To New High
106.092 : 2024/11/27 - last price action
104.799 : 2024/07/30 - High Before W Trend Reversal Formation
In addition to the annual highs in 2023 and/or 2024, inclusive the breakout from the w trend reversal formation, two downward trend lines from the annual high in 2024 are also interesting. Because the price action above proves the fundamentally positive bullish upward trend in the
DXY . And/Or even the breakout of the downfall trend from the first both annual year highs 2024. While a downfall around the two downward trend lines from the bears, between 106.5 and/or even 106 points, in retrospect we must have to speak of a short-term false breakout of new annual highs in 2024. I expect US bulls & US Bears to trade and/or invest around this terrain, more or less, through the end of 2024.The bears are taking over the
DXY today.Meanwhile down to -0.75% during today's trading session, on wednesday, the 27th November 2024. What happens? I don't know! But what I do know is that the price action today broke the uptrend, from the w trend reversal formation, downwards - during the opening of trading in Europe. And/Or the price action continued to be bearish - after the estimates for US growth for the 3rd quarter were published, and or the PCE Price Index. US growth was estimated at +2.8% for Q3 - while US inflation, during Q3, was +2.9%, +2.5% & +2.4%. The US economy appears to be emerging from US stagflation - but higher PCE today (October at +2.3%, September at +2.1%, August at +2.3%) seems to indicate a turnaround. What should actually speak for a higher
DXY ? But it is what it is! The DXY is being pushed down by the bears today - now menwhile -0.75%. How far down can it go? You can still see the downward trend from Thursday, the week before last! Maybe the DXY will bounce off him? And/Or will traders and investors trade the DXY again within the downward trend in the coming hours and days? I don`t know! Didn`t except this? But as longer i am thinking about it? It seems plausibel! Anaway, the rest of the downside trend channel runs below 105.8 points & 105.6 points - upper trend line. The down line runs down to 105.1 points and/or even 104.8 points. And that all, more or less at the breakout level of the w trend reversal formation! So stay alert - a very volatile, surprising price action today. More tomorrow...With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.