Another 48h - Impending Outbreak For DXY? It Looks Good!
2024/11/03
Another 48h - Impending Outbreak For DXY? It Looks Good!
“was the reaction to the us labour markets exaggerated?
i don't know - but I tend to stay to remain still bullish!?”
Friday's US employment data was good with 4.1% - better as the majority expects 4.2%. And the
DXY is reacting as expected. Before the publication on Friday, the DXY fell - all the way to our historical medium-term sideways trend line (annual high from 2017). If you will, we can hypothesize that traders and investors are currently undecided as to whether the US economy is actually facing a soft landing. And the USD bulls are afraid of their own courage!? The bears don't want to assert that we are facing a US recession?! I'm basically in the camp of the SoftLanding scenario - and also based on the latest US economic figures. US inflation is now higher than US growth again. So that the USA currently seems to be de facto growing out of US stagflation. And that includes a more than stable US unemployment rate of 4.1%. So the Fed can operate with a further rate cut of 25 basis points next week. But more on that in the coming days. Let's get on this weekend a broader detailed overview about the w trend reversal formation - which is showing us something very interesting- Will We Breakout (104.477 points) Of Our W Formation?
- Does The 2017 Highs (103.820 points) Serve As Support?
- Does The 2017 Highs (103.820 points) Serve As Resistance?
- Will DXY Fall Back During Coronavirus Outbreak (103.104 points)?
These 4 questions we should have asked ourselves for the current week - and let the price action be answered. To learn something new with the help of price action; so that we remember that we already knew something old and now know it confirmed. Because a breakout price action above 104.477 points should confirm the medium-term trend reversal formation, i.e. w formation. While a fall below 103.104 points the picture would again look negatively bullish, in the historical context. Which could possibly make the bear's mouth water again due to disappointing and/or negative US economic data - like during august and/or september this year 2024. This is the educational learning stuff for this calendar week - for next weeks.
“We try to catch new trends early and in later stages we try to catch trend reversals. Therefore, we tend to stabilize rather than destabilize the market. We are not doing this as a public service. It is our style of making money.”
George Soros
104.799 points - (2024/07/30) - July High Before Sell-Off
104.447 points - (2024/08/01) - High W-Formation
104.317 points - (2024/10/25) - last price action
102.160 points - (2024/08/05) - Low W-Formation
During the calendar week last week before, investors and/or traders handled the
DXY above our w formation for the first time (during Wednesday's trading session as when Wall Street was open). And/or on Monday and Tuesday also, while the intraday highs on Wednesday and/or Thursday were below the high of the w trend reversal formation, of 104.447 points. But the last week, the last 5 trading days, was more than interesting for another reason - more than unusual - more than normal - and therefore absolutely worth mentioning. Because we had before the last 5 trading days, 20 trading days, after the annual low of 2024, on 27th September 2024, were only 3 trading days ended bearish red - and/or even 17 of 20 trading ended bullish green. However, this was countered during the price action of the completed calendar week, at least during the first 4 trading days. We had red bearish trading days on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday - although not big ones. But 4 red bearish days. Which were then recaptured by the bulls on Friday after the better than expected US unemployment rate. So that we closed with 104.317 points - just like last weekend.I stick to my basic stance that an upward breakout from the W trend reversal formation is bullish. and or also a breakout from the w trend reversal formation, which is bearish downwards. And I, if at all, will formulate a long 4XSetUp or even a short 4XSetUp based on this! If any? Because with the “Another 48h - …” series I want, first and foremost, to learn with you. Make an educational contribution every day that describes the decision-making process for a (not) imminent 4XSetUp (long or short).
However, as long as traders and investors trade and invest in the
DXY inside the price action of the w trend reversal formation, between 102.160 points and/or 104.799 points, I am fundamentally bullishly optimistic for the TVC:DXY. And this is independent of the current level of debt of the US government and/or US private households - as well as the current US Democratic and/or US Republican government. Because I trust the FED, its chairman Jay Powell, and his co-decision makers on the committee when it comes to the key interest rate. And that the US Central Bank will continue to set interest rates both high and low in the future, so that the USA will continue to be something of a monetary policy locomotive in our so-called west - and US fiscal policy and US economic policy will then follow suit. But let's not look too far into the future - next week, this week, the next 5 days are likely to be the most exciting, volatile, and perhaps even the most educational days of 2024! Why? US elections on Tuesday! Fed interest rate decision on Thursday! And on Friday US consumer confidence! What more could you want as an interested observer, analyst and/or journalist who is interested in the USA? Let alone as a (non) potential investor and/or (non) potential trader in DXY?With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
Another 48h - DXY ... is pure information material.
By trying to give you even more information about the
DXY every day to make even better trading decisions (buy/sell or do nothing). The goal of each day is from my side that you say to yourself after reading my daily analysis (Another 48h - DXY ...): "I didn't notice that before!" Because then you have received new information; yes - maybe even learned something!? If, yes? Then give me a like - and continue reading tomorrow! Concrete 4XSetUps with entry price, target price and also stop price are available in the daily 4XSetUps...
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