2025/01/11
Another 48h - DXY Rises While Trump Dominates Headlines
“this week again about annual highs for 2023 and/or 2024!
why is this happening at the start of year 2025? trump?”
A strong US jobs report also pushed stock prices in Europe into the red on Friday, January 10, 2024. The consumer climate survey by the University of Michigan, which showed that US consumers' inflation expectations have increased, also fueled investors' concerns about continued high interest rates. The price action is going wonderfully crazy and surprising again, even though Donald Trump is not even in office yet. And admittedly, this also puzzles me - not an issue. But a lot of teaching material if you want. I want to! You too? Then read on. The
STOXX50 was unable to maintain its temporary price gains. At the end of trading it was down -0.81% at 4,977.26 points. However, on a weekly basis, the Eurozone's leading index gained a strong +2.2%. Thanks to the positive price development since the turn of the year, it was able to gain some ground on the US indices, which performed significantly better in 2024. In New York, however, there are losses today in the still young stock market year of 2025. Be that as it may, I don't want to describe the expectations for 2025 in a bearish manner. But at least until Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025 - at least next week (for better or worse, also the next one) - things are likely to remain bearish. Which is why today the London FTSE 100 
UK100 also fell by -0.86% to 8,248.49 points. While the Zurich SMI 
SMI even fell by -1.13% to 11,791.91 points.The era of cheap money - with only worse money being thrown after it - is over! And that means that today traders and/or investors (even little simple ones, like you and I) have the opportunity to buy interest-bearing securities again! What? Maybe an entire generation is wondering? That's right - since the low interest rate policy in 2008! And especially in our so-called West - even led by the USA. It is always the imagination that determines the price action - not only in our case
UKOIL - the imagination because the price action always tries to anticipate the future. That is the function of the price action of the financial market - that's why we are investing and/or trading. Until hope becomes reality - or not. However, even according to my research, it is unclear whether the CRA (Congressional Review Act) could achieve this goal. Whether Trump will actually reverse the green new deal on January 20, 2025. But it is another expression of the fear of an impending inflation bubble - which I don't want to hide either. Which is why the dangers of inflation seem to be overshadowing Wall Street like a sword of Damocles more than currently - because 50% of global oil demand is being screwed down by most Muslims, and/or also Russia. What makes supply scarcer - the price tends to rise if demand remains the same, during more and/or more using it. That's why Trump is putting further pressure on his “drill baby, drill baby, drill baby” program to be even faster and higher, so that at least something changes in the wallets of US taxpayers and US consumers. About an export surplus today, and thus a part of the consolidation in the USA's external balance, today I don't even want to think about. Because to bring the UKOIL down Donald Trump needs policy change on both frontlines: OPEC Policy and/or green domestic policy. However, this week Biden and/or Harris once again thwarted his attempt to make the US economy a growth engine again. Reuters reported over the course of the week “Biden to ban offshore oil, gas drilling in vast areas ahead of Trump term”. Which was immediately answered by Karoline Leavitt, Donald Trump's spokesman, with "Biden Drill Block 'Disgraceful,' 'Political Revenge,” as the Washington Examiner reported. Why the price action still ended during this week its trading days with over +1% and/or -1%. A foretaste of what lies ahead when Donald Trump enters the White House! On the same day, the Competitive Enterprise Institute also reported "Biden's last-minute oil drilling ban should be undone by Congress” - but this has since been questioned again. Because many assumed that Trump would also revoke this on January 20, 2025, among other things. Just like Biden did back in 2021, with his green deal, which gave us all the inflation. I'm not a lawyer. But it should be clear that this is one of the reasons why the price action is so volatile. And this is regardless of whether the CRA (Congressional Review Act) can be implemented with state legitimacy as a means of reversing Biden's actions or not.
“I'm not doing my philanthropic work, out of any kind of guilt, or any need to create good public relations. I'm doing it because I can afford to do it, and I believe in it.”
George Soros
109.966 : 2025/01/02 - annual high 2025
109.640 : 2025/01/10 - last price action
109.533 : 2025/01/02 - 1st annual high 2025
109.206 : 2025/01/03 - 1st high after 1st high 2025
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - annual high 2024
107.587 : 2024/12/20 - last low of 2024
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - annual high 2023
105.441 : 2024/11/06 - trump re-election day high
I think that the price action and/or hopefully my drawn lines and incl. patterns speak for themselves! So, as written, more about the intraday price action on Monday as usual.
With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.