DXY USD - MONTHLY ANALYSIS - CORRECTION
Updated
The USD has been in an uptrend since March - 2008 and has been dominating the financial markets and the global economy with toxic pressure since last year.
- Today, I would like to present an analysis that takes a closer look at the USD (DXY) from a monthly perspective.
We are at several relevant resistance points:
1. FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | 0.88 - is about to be tested.
-> 0.88 FIB = 114.979
-> Marked as a "blue" line on the chart.
+ Next psychological number would be 115,000 as resistance.
-> Psychological numbers are relevant decision points, because the human brain (subconsciously) prefers round numbers, at which more orders are placed.
2nd RESISTANCE TREND LINE | from 2008
-> 7 points of contact since the formation = very strong resistance.
-> Drawn as "red" line in the chart.
3. SUPPLY ZONE | from 2002 (gray)
-> Time expired, but still psychologically relevant for market participants.
-> Drawn in as a "gray" box in the chart.
4. POINTS OF INTEREST
-> Points, which are mostly a psychological number, at which some liquidity was traded in the past.
= these points can be seen as both "support / resistance".
-> Drawn as "turquoise" lines in the chart.
These are now only a few indicators of those which are available to us all.
However, even without indicators, it can be seen that the USD (DXY) is clearly overbought and a correction (from a chart-technical point of view) should be imminent.
Regardless of our analysis, the macroeconomy currently determines the further course of events.
Detailed price predictions are thus a matter of blind potshots, and that is the last thing we need in trading.
"Correction scenarios"
1. We see a reaction of the trend line and the 0.88 Fibonacci and will correct a little.
-> Possible correction target = 107 points
2. The DXY breaks the trend line and the 0.88 Fibonacci and is then finally stopped out by our "SUPPLY Zone + the Points of interests".
-> Possible correction target = 109 points
"Breakout scenarios
3. The DXY breaks through all marked resistances, makes a fakeout and enters the correction.
-> Possible correction target = 111 points
4. The DXY breaks through all marked resistances, confirms its breakout and starts its journey to the 1.618 Fibonacci.
-> Possible correction target = 152.129 points
Alright, now we can only wait and see what the future will bring us.
- Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives.
Thank you very much and happy trading!
- Today, I would like to present an analysis that takes a closer look at the USD (DXY) from a monthly perspective.
We are at several relevant resistance points:
1. FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | 0.88 - is about to be tested.
-> 0.88 FIB = 114.979
-> Marked as a "blue" line on the chart.
+ Next psychological number would be 115,000 as resistance.
-> Psychological numbers are relevant decision points, because the human brain (subconsciously) prefers round numbers, at which more orders are placed.
2nd RESISTANCE TREND LINE | from 2008
-> 7 points of contact since the formation = very strong resistance.
-> Drawn as "red" line in the chart.
3. SUPPLY ZONE | from 2002 (gray)
-> Time expired, but still psychologically relevant for market participants.
-> Drawn in as a "gray" box in the chart.
4. POINTS OF INTEREST
-> Points, which are mostly a psychological number, at which some liquidity was traded in the past.
= these points can be seen as both "support / resistance".
-> Drawn as "turquoise" lines in the chart.
These are now only a few indicators of those which are available to us all.
However, even without indicators, it can be seen that the USD (DXY) is clearly overbought and a correction (from a chart-technical point of view) should be imminent.
Regardless of our analysis, the macroeconomy currently determines the further course of events.
Detailed price predictions are thus a matter of blind potshots, and that is the last thing we need in trading.
"Correction scenarios"
1. We see a reaction of the trend line and the 0.88 Fibonacci and will correct a little.
-> Possible correction target = 107 points
2. The DXY breaks the trend line and the 0.88 Fibonacci and is then finally stopped out by our "SUPPLY Zone + the Points of interests".
-> Possible correction target = 109 points
"Breakout scenarios
3. The DXY breaks through all marked resistances, makes a fakeout and enters the correction.
-> Possible correction target = 111 points
4. The DXY breaks through all marked resistances, confirms its breakout and starts its journey to the 1.618 Fibonacci.
-> Possible correction target = 152.129 points
Alright, now we can only wait and see what the future will bring us.
- Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives.
Thank you very much and happy trading!
Note
The daily candle is closed and now reflects a "Bearish-Engulfing" candle:= Bearish signal, with which we can expect a further down-sale after the pullback.
= Breathe a sigh of relief for the markets should another "Bearish" candle confirm the "Engulfing".
= SHORT Trade for the DXY
Trade active
Die Wochen- und die Tages-Kerzen sind geschlossen und spiegeln eine "Bearish-Engulfing" Kerze wieder:= das ein weiterer Abverkauf im USD stattfindet, wird damit immer wahrscheinlicher.
= Aufatmen der Märkte wäre das Resultat.
= SHORT Trade für den DXY
= LONG Trades für alle anderen USD-Märkte (z.B. EUR/USD)
Trade closed: target reached
The TOP in the DXY predicted in this article, has been confirmed the last few weeks.After the DXY has fallen so low, I personally assume a temporary reset.
= LONG DXY and all associated pairs short
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