2024/12/18
Another 48h - DXY 1h Before FED Rate Cut Around Yesterday's High
“no big price action today before the fed press conference later, in 1h!
will our small fine uptrend channel hold until then? and after that too?”
Before today's Fed decision, the
DJI had now fallen for nine trading days in a row: this is the longest losing streak since 1978. In addition, more stocks have fallen than risen for 12 trading days in a row - this has only happened once in the past US stock market history. At the same time, tech stocks like 
AAPL continue to rise - only 
NVDA remains weak. And this despite the fact that one of the largest investors of all times, Warren Buffet, reduced his shares in AAPL . Value stocks currently have the longest losing streak in relation to growth stocks. While 
BTC1! , which had reached a new all-time high yesterday, now seems to be starting to correct after I set a new long BTC!! 4XSetUp formulated. What's going on with the price action on the financial market? In the different asset classes? I don't know! But it seems to be a time of extremes when it comes to the fundamental valuation of price action. And just at the moment when the US economy seems to be growing out of US stagflation, the FED is starting to cut interest rates! Too early? No more “higher for longer?” Are rate cuts now, may be the beginning of the coming runaway US inflation, for the year 2025? I don't know - as I said! It's the time of extreme price action, that I know, which is why I'm thinking about closing all of our 4XSetUps. Because the performance this year 2025 was better than ever! But I don't dare; as the price action rises and rises, in the DJI in the 
SP500 and or also in the 
NDX - and I don't want us (my readers and followers) to be just spectators, but also to participate and/or making money...- Will the bulls recapture the terrain above 106.517 points again?
- Will the bears recapture the terrain under 104.447 points again?
That's what we wanted to learn last week, based on the price action in
DXY . And we saw that the DXY actually closed at 106.945 points last Friday, December 13th, 2024 - even above the price action of 106.517 points. The price action is therefore again above the 1st annual year high, from 2024/04/16, at even 106.517 points. However, it is still below the terrain of the annual high of 2023, with 107.348 points, from 2023/10/03 and/or also the annual high of 2024, with 108.071 points, from 2024/11/22. Which is fundamentally bullish - as long as the price action can be defended by the US bulls above 106.517 points.
“The main difference between me and other people who have amassed this kind of money is that I am primarily interested in ideas, and I don't have much personal use for money. But I hate to think what would have happened if I hadn't made money: My ideas would not have gotten much play.”
George Soros
- Will the bulls defend the terrain above 106.517 points this week?
- Or will the price action fall back to the Dec`24 low at 105.420 points?
The low is crucial because it is more or less also the intraday high from November 6th, 2024 at 105.441 points when Trump was re-elected. So, in the case of higher price action, we can de facto argue that the
DXY has been rising since Trump's re-election. And we will find out this week, if the bulls defend the recaptured price action of 106.517 points from last week, i.e. the 1st Annual Year High 2024, from 2024/04/16, whether the bullish trend in the DXY will continue? Which is what I tend to assume, even if the price action stays above 106.517 points!The last price action of the
DXY is todayon Tuesday, the 17th December 2024 at 106.934 points.
This calendar week, everything is in the shadow of the Fed's interest rate cut, which is expected by most. If the Fed doesn't lower its interest rates by -0.25%, would that be a big surprise on the financial market, which could trigger an earthquake?
107.127 : 2024/12/18 - last price action
106.806 : 2024/12/11 - Wednesday High Last Week
106.731 : 2024/12/02 - Monday High (1st Dec`24 Week)
106.720 : 2024/12/04 - Wednesday High (1st Dec`24 Week)
106.637 : 2024/12/10 - Tuesday High Last Week
106.602 : 2024/12/03 - Tuesday High (1st Dec`24 Week)
This price action must be defended by the US bulls during the FED press conference later - which you can watch live here if you want. Why? Because on the one hand, the bullish price action is first confirmed if the price action remains above - and on the other hand, the function, the meaning and purpose, of our small, fine uptrend channel! Although a price action below 106.602 points would not be a big deal, at least our small, fine uptrend channel would have broken downwards. And we would then have to come up with a new technical scenario - i.e. analyze the price action, evaluate it, and then build a certain level of health based on that for the
DXY . Therefore it remains as it has been for the last few days: I still think that everything is more or less priced into the price action (fed rate cut of -0.25%). And we will still see a stronger DXY until the end of this week. After the ECB cut its interest rate last week and the FED followed suit this week, the picture remains that the US dollar is the cleaner of the two shirts (the Euro shirt); if I can write it like that. Perhaps this is also the reason for the last few days, even last week also, why the price action went up, after the trend was rather bearish for two weeks? That's why I expect that we are likely to experience price action in our small but fine upward trend channel in this calendar week. Important facts are that the uptrend started on Thursday, December 5th, 2024, and was confirmed the following Friday, December 6th, 2024, when the price action briefly broke down at the hour of the publication of the latest US unemployment rate. However, in the hour that followed, the price action returned back into our small, fine uptrend channel when the UNI Michigan consumer confidence was published. So that at the beginning of the week last week, the two-week downward trend line in the DXY at 106,214 points and/or 106.40 points was left behind by the US bulls. Which is why this small, fine uptrend channel is so important, because it confirms the breakout from the downtrend, as long as the price action within the uptrend channel is sent by the traders and/or investors. and that's what the price action is currently doing. So let's wait for the price action around the FED press conference in the next hours. And tomorrow we will analyze, evaluate and formulate a new (old) basic stance on the DXY - which generally tends to be more bullish than bearish. Because in the case of the EUR there is currently no reason (yet) to buy 
EURUSD . Quite the opposite, due to the current fiscal policy situation in France and/or also economic policy in my home country, my country of birth, Germany.With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
Another 48h - DXY ... is pure information material.
By trying to give you even more information about the
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.