2024/11/28
Another 48h - Bears Maintain Upper Hand Around Highs In DXY
“a fall back around the 2024 & 20223 annual highs is a setback for bulls!
how deep will setback be? latest downward trend? in it? underneath?”
The head of the Mexican government promises Trump to close the border, ECB boss Lagarde suggests buying more US products - and Meta boss Mark Zuckerberg was spotted at Mar-a-Lago: everyone just seem to be resigned to it have that Trump, with his troops, will lead the fortunes of the USA again in the next 4 years - no - if the media is to be believed, then preparations are underway for the greatest political comeback in the history of the USA, the greatest political comeback in our so-called West, while here in Europe, especially in my home country Germany, everyone is still cowering, not knowing how best to deal with this new old political reality. “Mexico’s president denies Trump’s claim that she agreed to shut down the US-Mexico border,” CNN reported today, for example. And/Or also an article appeared in The Guardian today "Mexican president claims 'no potential tariff war' with US after call with Trump", which reads surprisingly favorably about the future US president. Which surprises me deeply - but which I approve of. Because that just proves the political greatness of the US Democrats, after their defeat, at least not to do any dirty laundry in public and to concentrate entirely on content again. What really struck me this week. Not you? The major US media CNBC and CNN, and whatever the others are called, are no longer about Trump's apparently uncontrollable bad personality. No - it's about economic policy issues! And that's good - such public debates will inevitably lead to better economic policy decisions being made. But I don't want to get too euphoric - I'm catching myself at this point - because Joe Biden is currently still US President and/or Kamala Harris is US Vice President.
Now let's get back to everyday life - on Thanksgiving in the USA today, traditionally only the US futures are open. But there are still a few things that are likely to be important today: the upcoming new elections here in my home country of Germany, the crisis in France over its own national budget, the Russian ruble that was devalued yesterday and/or the military escalation of the war in Ukraine. And the price action on Wall Street yesterday also weighed on the otherwise generally positive mood, because NVDIA fell! Why?
- Will We Fall Back In The W Trend Reversal Formation?
- Will We Defeat The Old Annual High Of 2024?
- Are We Heading To Annual Highs Of 2023?
DXY - and which could be answered with no, yes, yes, in the last week. Because in the first two trading days the price action had more or less fallen back to the level of the previous annual high of 2024 by the middle of the week, after the price action rose up, during the last week before. Since Wednesday, the DXY rose above the annual high of 2023 for the first time into the weekend - at least on Friday.
“There is a powerful case for the market mechanism, but it is not that markets are perfect; it is that in a world dominated by imperfect understanding, markets provide an efficient feedback mechanism for evaluating the results of one's decisions and correcting mistakes.”
George Soros
- Who Will Takin` Over The Terrain Between The Annual Highs?
DXY closed with 107.490 points last weekend. Because a price action above would give the US bulls confirmation that the rally from the annual low in 2024 to more or less new annual highs in 2024 is continuing. While a price action below this should please the US bears again. And we must have to argue that all the price action of the last few days, the last few weeks, since the end of September 2024, is in danger of running out of steam. And we would have to assume a lower DXY .108.071 : 2024/11/22 - Friday High, Last Week
107.156 : 2024/11/21 - Thursday High, Last Week
107.064 : 2024/11/14 - Last New Annual High 2024
107.015 : 2024/11/14 - Thursday High, Last Week Before
106.918 : 2024/11/20 - Wednesdays High, Last Week
106.903 : 2024/11/15 - Fridays High, Last Week Before
106.813 : 2024/11/18 - Mondays High, Last Week
106.632 : 2024/11/19 - Tuesdays High, Last Week
106.176 : 2024/11/28 - last price action
After the downward trend from the second to last calendar week was broken upwards in the middle of last calendar week, it should not be surprising if the US bulls slow down a little this week. In other words, the
DXY comes down to the levels above. That was the expectation at the beginning of the week - rather the fear? And then it arrived! Because the previous upward trend was simply too steep and too fast. However, maybe also the FOMC Minutes on Tuesday and/or the PCE Price Index YoY on Wednesday had an impact on the downtrend this week? What I can't assess at the moment - but I don't want to contradict the bears on this. Because the price action speaks for it, at least for the current week, it is truly bearish!Anyway, during today's day, on Thursday, November 28, 2024 - the American Thangivin Day - the
DXY hardly moved. However, it remains to be noted that in yesterday's daily trading, on Wednesday, the DXY bounced back up more or less close to the upper trend line of the downward trend channel of over two weeks. Will that hold? Maybe it was even a short-term sell-off before things went up again? I don't know! In any case, the downward trend channel, dated November 14, 2024, remains an important price action zone. At least for this week! Next week? We will experience it.With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
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