2025/02/14 - 7th Calendar Week 2025
Another 48h - Bears Are Pressing The Bull Horns In The DXY
“the upward trend from Dec. `24 & Jan. `25 is in danger this week!
us inflation data? us retail sales? do they play a role? `or only tariffs?”
Amid the debate about US tariff policy and the United States' stance in the Ukraine war, the US stock markets opened somewhat sleepily this Friday, on February 14, 2025. Data from US retail has already been published pre-market and was significantly worse than experts expected. "Retail Sales in the United States increased 4.2% year-on-year in January 2025, following an upwardly revised 4.4% rise in December 2024. Retail Sales YoY in the United States averaged 4.73 percent from 1993 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 52.50 percent in April of 2021 and a record low of -19.90 percent in April of 2020." Which didn't necessarily brighten the mood of traders and/or investors. And so it comes as no surprise to anyone - me too - that the Dow Jones Industrial
DJIA fell by - 0.07% to 44,678.68 points at midday NY Time. Which indicates a weekly gain of almost one percent for the US leading index. The broad-based S&P 500 
SP500 , on the other hand, has so far increased by +0.07% to 6,119.06 points. While the Nasdaq 100 
NDX , which is predominantly stocked with technology stocks, gained a little more, namely +0.08% to 22,047.78 points. The US stock exchanges will be closed next Monday for a holiday.The policies of US President Donald Trump are currently top of mind on all issues on the world stock exchanges. This Friday also saw the appearance of his deputy J.D. Vance at the center of events at the Munich Security Conference. He has come to explain to the European allies the foreign and security policy course of the new US government. JD Vance's appearance today was summed up by the FAZ, a conservative liberal political daily newspaper from my home country and/or country of birth here in Germany, with the words: "US Vice President JD Vance said on Friday that free speech in Europe is at risk. He cited several examples where this is the case, such as the annulled election in Romania. If people in Europe are afraid of their own voters, "there is nothing America can do for you." The greatest danger he sees for Europe comes from within. This is much more worrying than external threats, such as from Russia or China, said Vance. When it comes to tariffs, Trump had already opened a new round the day before: reciprocal duties are to be levied on goods for which the Americans currently charge less than their trading partners. The White House also made it clear that VAT levies also target other trade barriers. What many traders and/or investors seem to have anticipated, willy-nilly, regarding the price action of the
DXY ! Or?- Will The First Uptrend Of 2025 Be Held This Week??
That was the question last week - and we have to answer it with YES. And will ask ourselves this week too. To learn something new (old) this week too.
“Scientific method seeks to understand things as they are, while alchemy seeks to bring about a desired state of affairs. To put it another way, the primary objective of science is truth, - that of alchemy, operational success.”
George Soros
- Will The First Uptrend Of 2025 Be Held This Week Once Again??
The uptrend is important because it started in the last week of the past 2024 - at 107.587 points, from 2024/12/20 (last low 2024) and/or 107.739 points, from 2024/12/30 (2nd last low 2024). Because as long as traders and/or investors are trading and/or investing in the
DXY above this extended trendline of 107.400 points and/or 107.650 points, we can argue that the price action will continue to trend bullish.110.176 : 2025/01/13 - Annual High 2025
109.881 : 2025/02/03 - Intraday High
108.337 : 2025/02/03 - Intraday Low
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual High 2024
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
106.682 : 2025/02/14 - last price action
105.192 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Election Night
Three bearish trading days in a row - on which both the short-term upward trend was broken and the annual high of 2023 was broken. What does that mean? The bears are pressing the bull horns in
DXY ! Why? I don't know! But it looks like a classic trend reversal - bearish trend reversal formation including the accompanying circumstances surrounding Donald Trump's tariff policy. Namely, as a bull, to buy on rumors and sell on facts - and that seems to be possible in the case of the price action of the DXY ?! Is that actually the case? I don't know that either! But more about that in more detail over the weekend. Because I didn't expect that - admittedly.With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.