2024/11/22
Another 48h - Euro Weakness Sends DXY To New Annual 2024 High
“poor eurozone economic data, while the US economy remains robust!
is the upswing in dxy justified? also next week? and/or for december?”
Many analysts and financial market participants argue and hope that Trump will introduce
BTC1! as a reserve currency - which I personally don't believe, but I also don't want to and can't rule it out. Just like the hypothesis that this is exactly why BTC1! is rising. Really now? I don't know it! What I do know is that I think it's one of the stupidest ideas to even consider introducing BTC1! as a reserve currency. Because BTC1! was originally and still is today a rebellious middle finger against the 
DXY . That's why BTC1! was invented during the US financial crisis in 2008, after the disaster at Bear Stearns Bank and/or Lehmann Brothers. In addition, this would make the USA look ridiculous, at least among sober accountants, including my humble self - which would be tacitly accepted by the rest of the world. Because it would be institutional proof and admission that they don't believe in the US dollar, let alone the US economy. That they don`t believe in the US Americans - US taxpayers and/or also US consumers (which all US Americans are). In order to grow out of the self-inflicted trade balance and/or US budget deficit - to grow out of it by producing better and cheaper products, offering better and cheaper goods, and providing better and cheaper services, both public and private, so that both in the US trade balance as the US budget also shows a plus again. Because that is the reason why the West, the USA, has been so concerned in the last few decades, at least since the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center, and in my opinion also since the end of the cold war, i.e. the beginning of the 1990s lost in the world. The hegemon, if you will, is also on the descending branch. Wants to make the world know that they were and are the greatest nation in human history, but have not won a single war since World War II - on the contrary. Since 2001, "Missing in Action" has become politically lost and isolated in adventurous war missions, and has even now become the largest debt organization in the world, financing monetary and material prosperity on credit and purchasing it from abroad. No - no non-Americans will silently buy that anymore. And all friends of the USA, me too, meanwhile Trump supporters now, know this. Whether you tackle it, like Milei in Argentina, or not! We will experience this – so or so. But that's why Trump was elected. War costs - primarily human lives. But otherwise just. Therefore, it was and is a true political miracle that Trump made it into the White House again. And we will see whether Americans' money continues to be lost in war operations. And whether the Trump government strengthen their infrastructure, their domestic US economy. Because no politician in this world who governs his compatriots and hardly has a national deficit to show, let alone a negative trade balance, even thinks about BTC1! . Therefore, he is what he has always been - a rebel against the US dollar.
“Scientific method seeks to understand things as they are, while alchemy seeks to bring about a desired state of affairs. To put it another way, the primary objective of science is truth, - that of alchemy, operational success.”
George Soros
- Will We Fall Back In The W Trend Reversal Formation?
- Will We Defeat The Old Annual High Of 2024?
- Are We Heading To Annual Highs Of 2023?
DXY . And which we should keep in mind - and let it be answered daily in the form of the price action, to learn may be day by day (not) something new.107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual Year High 2023
106.673 : 2024/11/15 - last price action
106.517 : 2024/04/16 - Annual Year High 2024
104.447 : 2024/08/01 - High Of The W Trend Reversal Formation
102.160 : 2024/08/05 - Low Of The W Trend Reversal Formation
100.157 : 2024/09/27 - Annual Year Low 2024
These are the most important price actions of
DXY . It is astonishing that there were only 35 trading days from the annual low in 2024 to the annual high in 2025 - i.e. 7 full calendar weeks. And that before, during, and or even after Trump's comeback to the White House. What does that mean? I don't know it! What I do know is that the US economy is now growing more or less faster than US inflation. So it seems that the US economy could to be growing out of the so-called US stagflation. Which is fundamentally negative and bearish for the DXY . Because then the US key interest rate should be lowered rather than raised. But compared to the other currencies in the basket, the US economy is still doing better - and the key interest rate is also higher. So that probably isn't the main reason - but it's still one. Because the "carry trade" is likely to continue like in the 
USDJPY - although no longer with an even greater gap; but still. No - I think that the expectations of lower US interest rates were simply too high!? And maybe that's why the DXY is rising more strongly than previously thought?! We probably still have "Higher For Longer" with regards to the FED - and that's due to a relatively better US economy compared to the others. Which is also, more or less, sooner or later, (not) reflected in the DXY .107.681 : 2024/11/22 - last price action
107.156 : 2024/11/21 - Thursday High, This Week
107.064 : 2024/11/14 - Last New Annual High 2024
107.015 : 2024/11/14 - Thursday High, Last Week
106.918 : 2024/11/20 - Wednesdays High, This Week
106.903 : 2024/11/15 - Fridays High, Last Week
106.813 : 2024/11/18 - Mondays High, This Week
106.632 : 2024/11/19 - Tuesdays High, This Week
Unexpectedly weak data on corporate sentiment in the euro area put downward pressure on the
EURUSD in particular at the end of the week. The purchasing managers' index compiled by S&P Global fell to its lowest level in ten months. Economists had expected the value to remain unchanged. Which is why the EURUSD also fell sharply this morning and the DXY shot up. Therefore, there is now support for DXY bulls from Europe - precisely because of the ever weakening economy in the Eurozone. The PMI has fallen below the growth limit of 50 points, once again underlining the growth concerns for the Eurozone. If you will, the PMI for November is another wake-up call for the EZB due to worsening economic policies in the Eurozone. And this sign seems to be confirmed in the chart. By the way, it's even clearer in the EURUSD - but we'll stick with DXY . The breakout of the last 5 or 6 trading days from the downward trend channel was successful! How far does it go? More about that next week. First of all, have a nice weekend.With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
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