2025/01/09
Another 48h - Calm In DXY Ahead Of Tomorrow's US Labour Data
“no big price action development for tomorrow during release!
but what happens after release? bullish? bearish? & why?”
If Donald Trump becomes US President again on January 20th, he will inherit a political disaster organized by the US Democrats! What do I mean by that? A historically high US budget deficit! A historic negative foreign trade balance! Stock markets are near historic highs - which shouldn't actually be a disaster - and that is also historically overvalued due to various parameters! Why so bad? Because in history and/or also because of the statistics in such scenarios, sooner or later, more or less, always - the emphasis is simply always - a major recession followed! And here lies the hare, buried in the pepper. Because ongoing US inflation, while people are dependent on goods from abroad to at least maintain material prosperity, including excessive national debt, while at the same time rising capital market interest rates, are not a scenario for simply lowering interest rates - as Trump did again formulated "Interest rates are far too high". Which is why the writing colleagues at the Washington Post already fear that Trump's political statements in the last few days will ensure that the Fed does nothing for the time being. "If the Fed pauses rate cuts in January, it might be because of Trump, because Fed minutes show potential trade and immigration policies under Trump are driving a slower approach to future cuts. Which should even continue to put pressure on the stock market.
These are the reasons, if I'm not mistaken, why the Fed is having a hard time cutting interest rates - in fact, they're unlikely to cut them any time soon. Because the yield curve is the indicator of how every state, including the USA, deals with money - with tax money (and bonds). And therefore the ultimate disciplinary instrument for every country, even also the USA - including for Trump. Because if the lenders go on strike, the US President is also powerless! The yield curve is rising, also in the US. Which is why he should reorganize the US economy for an even greater US economic growth as quickly as possible. Because the hurdles are gigantic - especially since it is becoming increasingly clear what monetary material shambles the Biden-Harris administration, the US democrats, is leaving behind the US taxpayers and/or even US consumers!
“Everybody says that I have a lot of power. But what does that power consist of?... Can I influence governments? I am beginning to be able to..."
George Soros
109.533 : 2025/01/02 - annual high 2025
109.378 : 2025/01/08 - today's intraday high
109.222 : 2025/01/09 - last price action
109.206 : 2025/01/03 - friday high (us trading)
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual Year High 2024
108.753 : 2025/01/06 - monday high (intraday sell-off)
107.739 : 2024/12/30 - 2nd last low 2024
107.587 : 2024/12/20 - last low 2024
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual Year High 2023
The calm before the storm in the
DXY price action ahead of tomorrow's US labor market data. As can be seen in the chart, there was one of the decisive lows in the current upward trend during the publication of the last US unemployment rate! Why? Because the US unemployment rate came out as expected - i.e. not down, let alone down significantly. So if the US unemployment rate comes out at +4.2% tomorrow as expected, the DXY bulls can assume that the trend in price action will continue! Why would the price action even turn? Correct - if the US unemployment rate were to be published tomorrow at +4.1% and/or even lower. But that is likely to fuel fears of an impending US recession, as history has proven. What will happen? I don't know! But I also discovered, as did Bravo Research, that "Stock Market Volatility Is Rising Just Like It Did Before 2008...". So we'll wait for the numbers for now - and assume another DXY . However, it is how it is - like i wrote yesterday already: “First we have the upward trend, since mid-December, i.e. the last two weeks of the past year 2024. At first,the last lowest low of 2024 with 107.587 points on 2024/12/20 - that was confirmed 10 days later with 107.739 points on 2024/12/30 as even the 2nd last low of 2024. A small, actually not special trend - relatively bullish, even tending to trend sideways. But the result is that at the beginning of the year the price action established itself above the annual highs of 2024 - 108.583 points on the last trading day on 2024/12/31. And/Or even above the annual year high of 2023 with 107.348 points from 2023/10/03. That's why this actuality scenario, from the technical pov (point of view) is so important! Because at the beginning of the year it may give us a foretaste of the upcoming year 2025. Because just as quickly as the price action rose in the first two days, it fell again - only to turn bullish again above the upward trend. And then in a W formation below the annual high in 2024! What? After the w trend reversal formation ended Wednesday trading yesterday above the 2024 annual high of 107.739 points, the price action even rose bullishly back up to the high from last Friday, with 109.206 points. Where the price action currently seems to be consolidating at 109.059 points!?” Just now the price action is today, on Thursday, the 9th january 2025 at 109.222 points.With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.