Another 48h - DXY Around 2017 Year Highs 2017 (Jan` 17)
2024/11/02
Another 48h - DXY Around 2017 Year Highs 2017 (Jan` 17)
“the annual high of 2017 was already on the first day!
wasn't trump the 45th us president back then?”
Anyway, the 103.820 price action was and is, for better or worse, the most decisive price action for the current year 2024. And not just because of the historical medium-term interim high, in the all-time context. no - even if we break everything down to the price action for the current year, the 103.337 price action is relevant. Because the average price between the previous annual low of 2024, from September 27th, with 100.157 points, and or also the previous annual high of 2024, from April 16th, 2024, with 106.517 points, is 103.337 points. So just 0.483 points below the annual high of 2017, from January 2017. Was there something back then? True! It was the month that Donald Trump took office as the 45th US President.
As a reminder, in a historical context about the
DXYIn early 2022, the
DXY shot up as the war began in eastern Ukraine. Since then, the US Dollar has proven itself to be a liquid haven also due to the FED's consistent restrictive monetary policy - where everyone, including you and me (as simple private individuals who want to quickly earn legal money on the financial market), could fast and secure use the US Dollar even as safe liquid haven. Which in turn was just a logical reaction function, if you will, due to the green US government's fiscal policy. First the Corona virus outbreak and then the costs of war in Eastern Europe. Because FED boss Jay and his decision-makers were in our so-called West the fastest and highest when it came to raising interest rates from 2022. So many people invested their money in the liquid haven of the US dollar - whether with a fixed interest rate, in Chicago (thanks to a higher and more expensive yield curve) and/or even with a risk premium, in New York (in the stock market). What war and/or still is interesting in this historical geopolitical context, at least in my humble opinion, is the fact that the last high was in September 2022, at 114.778 - and still is today. Why? Because it's the high and low in the week of September 2001, during the terrorist attacks on the Twin Towers, the World Trade Center, which was traded at 115.100 and/or 112.200 at that time back then. And that before the historic sell-off of the US dollar began in the following spring of 2002 - down to 70.698 (in May 2008).70.698 points - (May 2008) - long-term low
88.942 points - (May 2018) - low after mid-term high
92.630 points - (December 2005) - last high before long-term low
99.578 points - (November 2023) - new 2nd mid-term higher low after
103.820 points - (March 2017) - mid-term high after long-term low
114.778 points - (November 2022) - new 2nd mid-term higher high after
That's why this price action around 103.820 points - and/or even 103.337 points (middle price action of annual high & low 2024) - seems so important for traders and investors. Also due to the background of an over-indebted US budget, both in the private sector and the US government. Let's not kid ourselves - I don't want to fool you. The USA is the largest (private rather than state-organized) debt organization in the world - in human history. And only the faith, the trust of traders and/or investors in the financial market, spread around the globe, as well as the rest of the non-US American politicians on our planet, keeps the indebted USA alive. And that also only, because of the belief that the USA will grow out of its debt! What else? As will be the case again for the first time in the third quarter of 2024 - after the self-organized US stagflation under the watch of the US Democrats, the Biden Harris Administration, due to their left-wing green economic policy under the guise of liberal democracy.
“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux, and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.”
George Soros
- Will We Breakout (104.477 points) Of Our W Formation?
- Does The 2017 Highs (103.820 points) Serve As Support?
- Does The 2017 Highs (103.820 points) Serve As Resistance?
- Will DXY Fall Back During Coronavirus Outbreak (103.104 points)?
These 4 questions we should have asked ourselves for the current week - and let the price action be answered. To learn something new with the help of price action; so that we remember that we already knew something old and now know it confirmed. Because a breakout price action above 104.477 points should confirm the medium-term trend reversal formation, i.e. w formation. While a fall below 103.104 points the picture would again look negatively bullish, in the historical context. Which could possibly make the bear's mouth water again due to disappointing and/or negative US economic data - like during august and/or september this year 2024. This is the educational learning stuff for this calendar week - for next weeks.
However, we had more or less a sideways movement in the US dollar this year 2024 - in a historical context. Which also confirms the fact that we had twice a so-called death cross (the 200 SMA breaks the 100 SMA bearish from top to bottom) and a golden cross (the 100 SMA breaks the 200 SMA bullish from bottom to top). But in both cases, the bearish downward trend was not confirmed twice, or the one-time bullish upward trend, in the long term. So we can consider these two long-term buy and one sell indicators as a false indication, at least for this year 2024.
104.317 : 2024/11/01 - last price action
103.822 : 2024/11/01 - 200 SMA Trendline HL/2
103.141 : 2024/11/01 - 100 SMA Trendline HL/2
103.820 : 2017/01/03 - 1st Historical Mid-Term High After Long-Term Low
103.337 : 0000/00/00 - Average Price Action Of 2024 (High - Low)
102.992 : 2020/03/20 - High During Coronavirus Outbreak
As long as traders and investors trade and invest in the
DXY above the price action during the corona virus outbreak, of 102.992 points, I am fundamentally bullishly optimistic for the DXY - in the hgistorical context. And this is independent of the current level of debt of the US government and/or US private households - as well as the current US Democratic and/or US Republican government. Because I trust the FED, its chairman Jay Powell, and his co-decision makers on the committee when it comes to the key interest rate. And that the US Central Bank will continue to set interest rates both high and low in the future, so that the USA will continue to be something of a monetary policy locomotive in our so-called west - ahead of us german, european, the uk, australia, canada, japan, ... - and US fiscal policy and US economic policy will then follow suit. At least in our so-called West - because I don't want to address the topic of BRICS in as much detail overview here, like the TVC:DXY.With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
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