2025/02/20 - 8th Calendar Week 2025
Another 48h - Yesterday Weekly High & Today Weekly Low In DXY
“this week's low is once again lower than last week's low and/or before!
what does that mean today? bearish again? bullish only just yesterday?”
On the New York stock exchanges, the record hunt was over for now, Thursday, February 21, 2025. An unexpectedly gloomy outlook from US retailer Walmart
WMT fueled economic concerns - which also weighed on bank stocks. The leading index Dow Jones Industrial 
DJIA therefore lost -1.01% to 44,176.65 points. While the Nasdaq 100 
NDX , dominated by technology stocks, fell -0.48% to 22,068.06 points. The previous Wednesday it had reached a high, as had the broad-based S&P 500 
SP500 which lost -0.43% to 6,117.52 points today.The US economy was in stagflation in the 4th quarter of 2024, while in the 3rd quarter it had a higher "United States GDP Annual Growth Rate" than "United States Inflation Rate" for the first time. Therefore, US economic concerns are justified for two reasons! On the one hand, due to the consequences of the Green New Deal of the previous Biden/Harris government - which is why the USA was in US stagflation almost the entire time during the term of office of the US Democrats (i.e. had higher US inflation than higher US economic growth). And on the other hand, on the other hand, there are Trump's US tariffs. Because if the USA imports less, and at the same time no profitable Made In The USA offer is offered to US consumers that they then buy, then the calculation for the US economy will not work. Then imports and/or US economic growth will shrink. “Yes, my man!” Paul & Tom just chirped to me. “Because then our US economy will shrink and or get lost in science fiction!”, as I was writing this text. Which is why tariffs are fundamentally a useful instrument for every economy - but only if at the same time there is an internal national offer that is better and/or cheaper for its own consumer! Otherwise the calculation doesn't add up - imports fall, the economy shrinks and/or a new wave of inflation rises if consumers don't consume less because demand will get greater than supply.
- Will The First Uptrend Of 2025 Be Held This Week Once Again?
That was the question of the last 7th calendar week. To which we have to answer clearly with NO. The uptrend was important because it started in the last week of the past 2024 - at 107.587 points, from 2024/12/20 (last low 2024) and/or 107.739 points, from 2024/12/30 (2nd last low 2024). And as important, as long as traders and/or investors were trading and/or investing the
DXY above this extended trendline of more or less 108 points last week - but on last Wednesday, the 21th 2025 the last time. The importance of the upward trend that has expired becomes even more important as the annual highs in 2024 and/or 2023 have also been broken downwards. So we learned that the bears have temporarily taken over the territory for both reasons.“We start with the assumption that the stock market is always wrong, so that if you copy everybody else on Wall Street you’re doomed to do poorly.”
George Soros
- Will The Bulls Come Back Above 107.348 Points, The Annual High Of 2023?
That is the question of this 8th calendar week. Because a price action below would and will also retrospectively confirm the trend reversal formation of the price action development above the annual high of 2023, namely the 107.348 points.
110.176 : 2025/01/13 - Annual High 2025
109.881 : 2025/02/03 - Intraday High
108.337 : 2025/02/03 - Intraday Low
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual High 2024
107.381 : 2025/02/20 - Yesterday's Intraday High
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
106.566 : 2025/02/14 - Last Week Low
106.356 : 2025/02/20 - last price action
106.347 : 2025/02/20 - Today's Intraday Low
105.192 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Election Night
The day before yesterday I wrote and/or truly believed in it, “Hope dies last - in this case the belief that the bulls will climb back to the annual high of 2023 at 107,348 points. I don't believe in it anymore today, after the last calendar week. But let's wait and see. Even the low from last Friday, February 14th, 2025 at 106,566 points has held so far. But yesterday we experienced that the market, more precisely the foreign exchange market, i.e. the traders and/or investors, taught me otherwise. If only for one trading hour - namely at lunchtime NY time. As traders and/or investors send the price action of the
DXY up to today's intraday high at 107.381 points. What I didn't expect and/or also couldn't figure out from the price action so far. And today? New weekly low! The price action is currently a rollercoaster ride as far as the individual trading days are concerned, but the overarching downward trend seems to be bearish. Is that actually the case? Of course I don't know either! But what I know is the fact that, looking back, with the help of technical analysis, we have something like a trend reversal formation behind us, above us, if traders and/or investors send the price action below the annual high of 2023 at 107,348 points. And that is currently the case! Or? And that's also because the annual highs in 2024 & 2025 were above 108.583 points and/or also 110.176 points. Therefore, if I am not mistaken, the probability is and remains rather greater, precisely because of this hypothesis, that we could see a price action tending towards 105,192 points - the highest price on November 6th, 2024, the day Trump was re-elected. Which is why in such moments, price action scenarios like this, even today, this week, something like the teacher, like the trainer, comes out of me - and not just the jet pilot (investor and/or trader). Because that's what it's all about - trying to perceive everything, evaluate it, and then, based on probabilities, anticipate the direction, be bullish or bearish (or neutral). Which is why I'm currently arguing for the bearish side. Even though I didn't believe that until last week - precisely because of the reasons I just formulated.With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron
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