2025/02/27 - 9th Calendar Week 2025
Another 48h - Bulls Are Hopeful Again After Today's Data
“all us data from today gives no hope for interest rate cuts!
now time to become bullish again? why? no longer bearish?”
New tariff announcements from US President Donald Trump put some strain on the German stock market
What happened tonight? Nvidia numbers! No - US President Trump verbally took out the hammer again and now wants to impose tariffs of 25 percent on imports from the European Union - "for cars and all other things". The official announcement should follow very soon. Yesterday evening, shortly before the closing bell on Wall Street, the Financial Times published: "Donald Trump threatens to impose 25% tariffs on EU goods." I'm starting to wonder too! Won't this be an economic policy goal for Trump? A fumble, as they say in the NFL? Dealing with tariffs is fundamentally not a bad thing - a useful instrument to better regulate and/or control agriculture, production, industry, manufacturing, trade, and even services. But that has to be calculated - otherwise it will be the cause of a new wave of inflation. My friend CFD online broker analyst is not a fan of Trump anyway, let alone Nvidia
- Will The Bulls Come Back Above 107.348 Points, The Annual High Of 2023?
That was the question of the last 8th calendar week. And we have to answer this question with NO - because the last price action on Friday, the 21st february 2025 was 106.641 points. Answering this question was instructive because a price action below would and will also retrospectively confirm the trend reversal formation of the price action development above the annual high of 2023, namely even the 107.348 points.
“Demand may be a suitable subject for psychologists, supply may be the province of engineers or management scientists; both are beyond the scope of economics.”
George Soros
- Will The Bears Defend The Terrain Under 107.348 Points Once Again This Week?
This is the question of this 9th calendar week. And it is important because it would confirm the trend reversal formation above the 2023 annual high, at just 107.348 Points points, in the second week in a row.
110.176 : 2025/01/13 - Annual High 2025
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual High 2024
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
107.243 : 2025/02/27 - last price action
105.441 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Re-Election Day
Traders and/or investors only sent the DXY
109.881 : 2025/02/02 - 1st Short Downtrend 1st Leg
108.523 : 2025/02/12 - 1st Short Downtrend 2nd Leg
108.523 : 2025/02/12 - 2nd Short Downtrend 1st Leg
107.381 : 2025/02/19 - 2nd Short Downtrend 2nd Leg
107.381 : 2025/02/19 - 3rd Short Downtrend 1st Leg
106.789 : 2025/02/24 - 3rd Short Downtrend 2nd Leg
106.566 : 2025/02/14 - Last Week Before Low
107.243 : 2025/02/27 - last price action
106.334 : 2025/02/20 - Last Week Low
106.126 : 2025/02/23 - This Week Low
Be that as it may, in addition to the general picture this week, if we analyze the price action in a little more detail without losing track at the same time, the three short-term downward trends are groundbreaking. And these were all broken up bullishly higher today - after new US figures were published. Which one was it? I don't know! "The core personal consumption expenditure price index in the US increased by 2.7% from the previous period in the final quarter of 2024, accelerating from the 2.2% increase in Q3 and above the advance estimate of 2.5%. At the same time, the headline rose by an annualized 2.4%, up from the 1.5% increase in the previous three-month period and slightly above the advance estimate of 2.3%." Could well be possible - because these numbers don't fall. “So there’s no reason to cut interest rates,” bulls may have thought. In the case of durable goods, on the other hand, I'm pretty sure that traders and/or investors could have said to themselves: "Okay, it's not that bad at the moment! Even better than feared" - and sent the
With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron
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