DXY 11/06 – Dollar Index Eyes FVG Breakout Ahead of CPI | Reversal Risk After 100.31?
The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to consolidate within a rising channel on the H2 timeframe, with price tightening just ahead of a key macro event — the US CPI report. DXY is now approaching a critical Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone, where liquidity hunts and potential reversals become highly probable.
🌐 MACRO OUTLOOK & MARKET SENTIMENT
📌 US CPI (June 12):
The main macro driver for DXY this week.
A hotter-than-expected print → strengthens the Fed’s hawkish stance → DXY likely to spike.
A weaker-than-expected CPI → boosts rate cut expectations → downside pressure on DXY.
📌 Risk Sentiment:
Institutions are readjusting their exposure ahead of CPI and FOMC. This has caused DXY to hover near EMA89 — a sign of indecision.
📌 Cross-asset Flows (Bonds & Gold):
Treasury yields are stable, but surprises in CPI could lead to capital rotation between gold and USD, increasing volatility in XAUUSD and DXY simultaneously.
📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Trend Structure:
DXY is following a clean ascending channel on H2, with higher lows respecting the lower trendline.
EMA Confluence (13–34–89–200)
Price is consolidating near EMA89 and below EMA200 (99.40), forming a neutral short-term bias.
A clean breakout above EMA200 could trigger acceleration into the FVG zone.
Key FVG Zone (H2):
99.63 – 100.31 is an unfilled Fair Value Gap.
This zone may act as a magnet for price before any meaningful rejection or breakout.
Potential Reversal Area:
A rejection at 100.31 could trigger a sharp pullback toward the liquidity zone around 98.68.
🧠 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
CPI will set the tone for DXY’s mid-term trend.
Watch the 99.63 – 100.31 FVG zone for liquidity sweeps and potential rejection.
Wait for confirmation, not prediction — especially in macro-sensitive environments.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to consolidate within a rising channel on the H2 timeframe, with price tightening just ahead of a key macro event — the US CPI report. DXY is now approaching a critical Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone, where liquidity hunts and potential reversals become highly probable.
🌐 MACRO OUTLOOK & MARKET SENTIMENT
📌 US CPI (June 12):
The main macro driver for DXY this week.
A hotter-than-expected print → strengthens the Fed’s hawkish stance → DXY likely to spike.
A weaker-than-expected CPI → boosts rate cut expectations → downside pressure on DXY.
📌 Risk Sentiment:
Institutions are readjusting their exposure ahead of CPI and FOMC. This has caused DXY to hover near EMA89 — a sign of indecision.
📌 Cross-asset Flows (Bonds & Gold):
Treasury yields are stable, but surprises in CPI could lead to capital rotation between gold and USD, increasing volatility in XAUUSD and DXY simultaneously.
📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Trend Structure:
DXY is following a clean ascending channel on H2, with higher lows respecting the lower trendline.
EMA Confluence (13–34–89–200)
Price is consolidating near EMA89 and below EMA200 (99.40), forming a neutral short-term bias.
A clean breakout above EMA200 could trigger acceleration into the FVG zone.
Key FVG Zone (H2):
99.63 – 100.31 is an unfilled Fair Value Gap.
This zone may act as a magnet for price before any meaningful rejection or breakout.
Potential Reversal Area:
A rejection at 100.31 could trigger a sharp pullback toward the liquidity zone around 98.68.
🧠 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
CPI will set the tone for DXY’s mid-term trend.
Watch the 99.63 – 100.31 FVG zone for liquidity sweeps and potential rejection.
Wait for confirmation, not prediction — especially in macro-sensitive environments.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.