DXY - understanding RISK ON or RISK OFF
Hi guys. Trying to get better at expressing what i see so This is for educational purposes. Ill try to express my take on the relation of DXY to either a RISK ON or RISK OFF scenario with my go to trading tools.
RISK ON = BULLISH
RISK OFF = BEARISH
DXY can be a powerful tool in TA when trading equities or crpyto currency. It is known to be inversely related to Equities and Crypto. Meaning when DXY goes up, mentioned assets go down & when DXY goes down, the assets go up.
I use it as such for my trades.
Okay so firstly:
Price Action:
As you can see current price action on the Daily time frame shows us trying to break the red trend line. This is the 4th touch point, which as me oogling heavy on this at the moment. For risk on situation, we would like to NOT break this trend line and rather have price action move back down. If so we would fall to the WHITE support line. Breaking this support would be even better for RISK ON.
Also notice the orange trend line this coincides with the top we had. If we break this, thats a major trend change, potentially to the upside. That may coincide with recession talks, S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, Crypto all going down to new lows (In my opinion).
Now Indcators:
1. RSI - We've clearly printed a higher high on the RSI. Notice the 2 Red horizontal lines, one above is resistance, one below is support. We want to stay below the resistance line and not breach it and let it flip support. That would indicate major trend shift in the RSI and could lead to RISK OFF. Ideally, we want to hit support and break down or move sideways to maintain the current situ in market.
2. MACD - Momentum indicator - we are picking up a little in omentum but its more or less just average power. For it to pick up, which would be RISK OFF situ, the blue/orange line would go above the 0 level. Ideal situ, to stay below 0 as long as we can, or if we breach 0 quickly come back down as drawn in red.
3. ADX & DI - Momentum indicator - When red line is above the green line it indicates bearishness and when green line above red line its bullish momentum. As you can see the gray rectangle i think we will be in a period highlighted by previous gray box. Where momentum just chops sideways with continuous overtakes by both colors (green & red).
4. STOCH RSI - Momentum indicator - Here we would like to see cross below the 80 level which would indicate RISK ON. If orange line catches up to blue and begins to go horizontal as shown by red arrow, that could indicate RISK OFF.
Please note we would like to see confluence among multiple indicators for the direction to be more probable. If one goes RISK OFF, other 3 RISK ON, it could be possible for RISK ON but i would like to see all 4 show one direction. For more clarity i would use other tools as well in my toolbelt. But i like these cuz there simple and works well for me countless times.
So keep a close eye on DXY! Great indicator of whats to come for the markets overall.
Thank you. If your into TA please join in and let me know what you think! Lets learn together!
***Btw this is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. Im just a student of the markets, wanting to reinforce my understanding.
RISK ON = BULLISH
RISK OFF = BEARISH
DXY can be a powerful tool in TA when trading equities or crpyto currency. It is known to be inversely related to Equities and Crypto. Meaning when DXY goes up, mentioned assets go down & when DXY goes down, the assets go up.
I use it as such for my trades.
Okay so firstly:
Price Action:
As you can see current price action on the Daily time frame shows us trying to break the red trend line. This is the 4th touch point, which as me oogling heavy on this at the moment. For risk on situation, we would like to NOT break this trend line and rather have price action move back down. If so we would fall to the WHITE support line. Breaking this support would be even better for RISK ON.
Also notice the orange trend line this coincides with the top we had. If we break this, thats a major trend change, potentially to the upside. That may coincide with recession talks, S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, Crypto all going down to new lows (In my opinion).
Now Indcators:
1. RSI - We've clearly printed a higher high on the RSI. Notice the 2 Red horizontal lines, one above is resistance, one below is support. We want to stay below the resistance line and not breach it and let it flip support. That would indicate major trend shift in the RSI and could lead to RISK OFF. Ideally, we want to hit support and break down or move sideways to maintain the current situ in market.
2. MACD - Momentum indicator - we are picking up a little in omentum but its more or less just average power. For it to pick up, which would be RISK OFF situ, the blue/orange line would go above the 0 level. Ideal situ, to stay below 0 as long as we can, or if we breach 0 quickly come back down as drawn in red.
3. ADX & DI - Momentum indicator - When red line is above the green line it indicates bearishness and when green line above red line its bullish momentum. As you can see the gray rectangle i think we will be in a period highlighted by previous gray box. Where momentum just chops sideways with continuous overtakes by both colors (green & red).
4. STOCH RSI - Momentum indicator - Here we would like to see cross below the 80 level which would indicate RISK ON. If orange line catches up to blue and begins to go horizontal as shown by red arrow, that could indicate RISK OFF.
Please note we would like to see confluence among multiple indicators for the direction to be more probable. If one goes RISK OFF, other 3 RISK ON, it could be possible for RISK ON but i would like to see all 4 show one direction. For more clarity i would use other tools as well in my toolbelt. But i like these cuz there simple and works well for me countless times.
So keep a close eye on DXY! Great indicator of whats to come for the markets overall.
Thank you. If your into TA please join in and let me know what you think! Lets learn together!
***Btw this is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. Im just a student of the markets, wanting to reinforce my understanding.
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