2025/02/06
Another 48h - DXY With Slight Recovery In The Last 10 Hours
“ambivalent about trump tariffs, it will be a groundbreaking week!
are the bears taking over the terrain? below highs of 2023 & 2024?”
Today Trump is participating in the bipartisan National Prayer Breakfast, a decades-long tradition in Washington. And it will be interesting to see how far he will go in public again? Sometimes I think someone should write him a program to learn to say "no" to his whispers around him - because with all his MAGA - good will America - he doesn't seem to take no for an answer, at least in public. Sure - the customs policy is understandable and actually good for the US taxpayer & US consumer. That's why i also supported him - economics policies for the usa and/or peacefully foreign policy. But meanwhile we have to watch this foreign policy theatre, day by day? Sorry - then I'm out too! Canada, Panama, Greenland, and/or now the GAZA strip? Against the will of the Canadians, the people of Panama, Greenland, let alone Palestinians? This fuels problems rather than seems to solve them - at least in public. Whatever is (not) agreed behind the scenes is something I don't know either!
However, be that as it may - our leading German index seems unaffected by this, almost as if it has learned to dance on a volcano. The comeback kid has become a real guy. Our German DAX
DAX reached a record high again on Thursday, February 6th, 2025, just a few days after the setback caused by the US customs dispute. There have been no new tariff announcements from US President Donald Trump recently, meaning investors ignored the first tariff shock that had dragged down the stock markets at the start of the week. Quarterly figures from German companies provided support. So that in the late morning the DAX DAX was able to increase its record to a good 21,807 points. In the afternoon, the leading index was up +0.80% at 21,758 points. In the second row of German stock exchanges, the MDax 
MDAX rose by +0.85% to 26,875 points. The US labor market data expected tomorrow, Friday, February 7, 2025, is also approaching as a potential market mover. Ahead of this, the US stock exchanges are expected to have little movement on Thursday on WallStreet, if i am not wrong - unlike here in Europe, where the EuroStoxx 50 
EUSTX50 has already increased by +0.9%. Outside the eurozone, the London benchmark index FTSE 100 
UKX fell with an even larger gain of +1.6% after the British central bank lowered its key interest rate. Maybe thats why also the reason why the 
DXY recovered last 10 hours.- Will the annual high of 2023 at 107.348 hold?
The answer to this question last week was yes. Because traders and/or investors sent the
DXY to a low of 107.500 points over the course of the last week on Thursday, January 30, 2025. Even above 107.348 points - which was the annual high of 2023, from 2023/10/03. From this point of view we may be experiencing a trend reversal this week.“If the cognitive function operated in isolation, without any interference from the manipulative function, it could produce knowledge. Knowledge is represented by true statements. A statement is true if it corresponds to the facts. But if the manipulative function is at work, the facts no longer serve as an independent criterion of truth.”[
George Soros
- Will The First Uptrend Of 2025 Be Held This Week??
The uptrend is important because it started in the last week of the past 2024 - at 107.587 points, from 2024/12/20 (last low 2024) and/or 107.739 points, from 2024/12/30 (2nd last low 2024). Because as long as traders and/or investors are trading and/or investing in the
DXY above this extended trendline of 108.480 points and/or 108.640 points, we can argue that the price action will continue to trend bullish.The bears control the price action in the
DXY between the annual highs of 2025, 2024 and/or even 2023. No question? It's obvious! Although I would like to make a clear correction at this point - because if traders and/or investors send the price action of the DXY below the annual high for 2023 - i.e. below 107.348 points - then the DXY has not completed a medium-term trend reversal formation! No - then a short-term trend reversal pattern is complete! I wrote it yesterday wrong - excuse me! However, if I proceed methodically (and I want and can), I want and can see a medium-term trend reversal formation when we have a price action again below the high on Donald Trump's election night - i.e. below 105.192 points. But let's get back down to the day-to-day business - the price action of the last 24 hours and/or the next 24 hours.110.176 : 2025/01/13 - Annual High 2025
109.881 : 2025/02/02 - High Of This Week
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual High 2024
107.928 : 2025/02/06 - last price action
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
106.969 : 2025/01/27 - Low Of Last Week
105.192 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Election Night
On the one hand, we can see that the first short-term uptrend from late 2024 and or early 2025 broke down on Tuesday after bouncing off the extended uptrend line on Monday! What does that mean? The bears have the terrain - i.e. the price action of the
DXY - under control between the annual highs in 2025, 2024 and or even 2023. On the other hand, an interesting scenario occurred yesterday in the day trading session, in the evening of our central european time - while WallStreet was open. The price action, which has been beaten downwards by traders and/or investors since the beginning of the week after Trump made his tariff pool policy public, more or less bounced off both the downtrend and the 2023 annual high.Currently - 2.3 minutes after WallStreet opened - the DXY is at 107.925 points. And it has been recovering more or less for 10 hours - but admittedly also at a somewhat low level (at least this Thursday). Was that the turning point between the annual highs of 2025, 2024 and or even 2023? I don't know! But that will probably be the topic of next calendar week! Anyway? Tomorrow there will be US labor market data - and they should have a decisive influence on the direction of price action.With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron
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